For Round 29, I could only find one match that wasn’t congested: Crystal Place vs Watford. Crystal Palace supporters cashed a value bet, if they didn’t mind just having one bet.

There are 11 matches being played in Round 30. Man City is playing Arsenal to make up a previously-postponed match. There are a lot of cup matches also affecting Round 30. Here are the teams involved in congested fixtures: Man City, Arsenal, West Ham, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U and Wolves.

Round 31 will probably involve only 6 matches because four have been postponed due to cup matches.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 30.doc (60.5 KB, 1206 views)

The winner of Round 30 was the Corona-virus. Rounds 30 and 31 are postponed, at the very least. The EPL says Round 32 will start on 4 April. We'll see.

Now be sure to wash your hands after reading this from a meter away.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

The EPL is starting up after three months in limbo. Here is Round 30 again but with the second make-up match: Aston Villa vs Sheffield. The 12 games are squeezed into 5 days from 17-22 June to be followed by 10 more games from 23-25 June. Talk about congested fixtures!

With empty stadiums, the home advantage should be less in two ways. The home players won’t have as much psychological boost and referees who usually favour the home team with a loud crowd will have silence. There were studies where refs watched videos in a studio, half with crowd noise and half without. The ones that watched with crowd noise called “virtual” fouls more often on the visitors. The refs without sound called fouls about equally.

I checked the bookie prices from three months ago when we were supposed to have Round 30 the first time. The home team payoffs have been increased and the visitor payoffs are now less, which tells us that the bookies are calling for less home advantage. I could have guessed at a lower home advantage but I’d rather let my system find the home advantage as we play on

We will find out what effect the three months off had on physical conditioning and team cohesiveness.

Bet cautiously as we start up and stay well, my friends!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 30, again.doc (61.0 KB, 1177 views)

If you blink, you will miss an EPL Round. They will play about twice a week for all but the last week of the season. You will have to use your judgement about how you want to bet on such congested fixtures. There were 4 draws in Round 30, which is what we expect when fixtures come fast and furious.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 31.doc (60.5 KB, 1185 views)

Looks like we just have to get used to the new abnormal. From what we have seen for two weeks, teams cannot hold back during these congested fixtures to be rested when normal pacing returns, which won’t happen, except for the last round. The EPL home teams have done about what we thought, even without fans. My favourite has won 12 of 16 games not drawn. My favourite Burnley won in a bookie upset. So, good luck with the new abnormal.

Liverpool has to thank Chelsea for beating Man City and giving Liverpool the title. Now, Liverpool travels to Man City. Should be spirited to say the least. Too bad a stadium full of Citizens can’t say hello. Somehow, I think City fans will find a way to be heard.

Attached Files

EPL Round 32.doc (60.5 KB, 1168 views)

We had some sanity in Round 32 and some congested fixtures insanity. The sanity was that values bets were cashed by Newcastle and by Sheffield supporters. The insanity, as we have seen before with congested fixtures, is that if someone bet equally on all bookie underdogs, they wouldn’t just have had a small profit, they would have had a crazy 80% profit.

Take a quick breath and let’s see what the weekend round has in store for us.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 33.doc (60.5 KB, 1158 views)

Rounds 30 and 31 were the first of a long set of congested fixtures with two rounds per week. Those two round went mostly as expected. Of course, the teams had been off for weeks and, although a bit rusty, were rested.

However, rounds 32 and 33 showed that some teams were saving energy. If you bet equally on all bookie underdogs, you would have had an 80% profit for round 32 and a 43% profit for round 33. The teams are becoming unreliable as we have seen often when they get fatigued during congested fixtures. Be very skeptical as you look for value bets.

Attached Files

EPL Round 34.doc (60.5 KB, 1182 views)

This will be the sixth round since June 17th. It's not a surprise that the two big cashing value bets for Round 34 were both for bookie underdogs: Sheffield and Burnley.

May you and good luck have very little social distancing between you.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 35.doc (60.5 KB, 1147 views)

Value bets were cashed by supporters of Tottenham and Wolves. Then, in typical congested fixtures fashion, Liverpool and Man U both settled for draws against much weaker opponents. If you bet equally on all underdogs, you only would have only had a 10% profit this time, which is a good sign.

Here comes Round 36.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 36.doc (61.0 KB, 1130 views)

There is just one more round after this.

Leicester and West Ham supporters cashed value bets in Round 36. My favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren't drawn, so I think the teams are playing at their best with the end in sight.

Good luck and be well!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 37.doc (61.0 KB, 1094 views)