I was sure I'd seen an option somewhere to only alter the stake in an upward direction on bank percentage staking but darned if I can find it this morning, maybe I was dreaming.

That's a definite staking plan you're talking about so you're not dreaming.

Example back 5% of bank and raise stakes as the bank goes or lower stakes if bank goes down to always be 5% of bank.

The other option is ratchet staking with the above however the bet never goes down - it just stays the same as before your loss until your in profit again and then continues up. In a way they are both like level stakes however the stake changes depending on bank balance.

I was looking at the bank percentage staking with this from 26/12/12 until yesterday a $5.10 starting bet would now be at $8.04. This was using a 10% loss/liability of a $300 bank ($30) rather than the actual back amount which is set at 1.7% of the $300 bank.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

I've attached one of the spreadsheets that I've put some divs into and added a couple of formulae to make things easier.
I've rounded up the stake column as I don't think anyone invests with odd dollars and cents.
I also included comments from their forum to advise how to use it.

Attached Files

rfsp.xlsx (155.5 KB, 443 views)

Thanks Surround. I'm not sure that I really understand it but I'm sure others will appreciate it.

By the way, another winning day today.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

It's progressive Ocho so you keep raising by +1 Unit with every Loss...

START
1 Unit WIN => Loss so +1 Unit
2 Unit WIN => Another loss so +1 Unit
3 Unit WIN => Win so reset back to 1 Unit
1 Unit WIN etc etc


You will find that in practice, there will be instances of several losses in a row (even at high SR) so that you will not necessarily only recover the 1 unit. The point with the +1 unit per loss approach is that the 'pendulum' doesn't go spastic in your hand and blow up your bank ! If you can maintain the high strike >85%, it's the 5% starting stake which will keep the 'ocho-lations' under control.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Thanks LG but that wouldn't regain the loss(es) very well. This is because I think I need some type of lay recovery staking due to a winning day being +1 unit and a losing day being around -6 units. Kind of like laying a $6 horse and trying to recover the bets.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Understood. Good luck with it.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I hit the ground with a thud last night when checking the October 2012 figures.

October 2012 - 31 days, 25 winning days, 6 losing days, Level stakes loss -$13.71 ($1 amount to win)

So total 116 days with 103 winning days & 13 losing days, Level stakes profit $34.88 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 88.7% daily strike rate.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

It looks like 3 months of great data means absolutely nothing in this game.

I tested for September 2012 which was the worst result to date and yet it was another winning day today making it one loss for the whole of January so far.

September 2012 - 30 days, 21 winning days, 9 losing days, Level stakes loss -$28.50 ($1 amount to win)

So total 147 days with 125 winning days & 22 losing days, Level stakes profit $7.38 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 85% daily strike rate.

Oh well, back to the drawing board.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Hi The Ocho,

Could the drop in results for Sept & Oct be the change of class of horses coming into their preparations during those months. Just a thought.