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#1
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Is my 1st system ready?
Here is a system I have,
have been recording data for a while. Win only results. Bets : 239 Return : $386.60 (At worst, this is using one tote only) Profit on turnover : 62% Winners : 41 (Other placegetters - 47) S/Rate : 17.15% (1 in 5.83 selections) Ave Winning Price : $9.43 3 biggest winners : $37, $21, $21. 3 biggest 2nds : $11, $12, $17 3 biggest 3rds : $26, $24, $13 Would you peeps back this religiously, or wait for more results? |
#2
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Quote:
My POT is less than this but still very healthy, and my SR is around 22%, BUT I have to work for it, (maintaining databases etc.), so I would have a go at it. Mind you, a strike rate hovering around the 17% mark, is in my opinion, in the throw a dart territory. Never mind that though, if you have a proposal regarding this, let me know. I am punting for money not glory. Cheers Marcus Last edited by marcus25 : 24th February 2006 at 08:07 PM. |
#3
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Punter76,
I'd have a conservative shot at this until you have double the sample. Putting it simply, I've seen far worse than this being followed, and your profit is not all made up from the longies. I'd treat with caution, but certainly have a dip at it for a while, just be prepared to be patient until those winners bob up. Good Luck.
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#4
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Run of outs
P76
What sort of losing streak are you expecting with a 17% hit rate? |
#5
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Jacfin,
By my quick estimates: Over 1000 bets 20 should be expected. 30 would be unlucky. I would probably factor in a drawdown of 50 units. So betting 1% of account, non-reducible on losing run should be very safe. That is if the system holds up of course. Sound about right? Like Chrome suggested, I'll have $10 on each, but before betting decent amounts I'll monitor for another 250 bets. |
#6
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P76
Your estimates sound spot on to me. The problem that i have found with all systems over many years is that when you spot a profitable anomaly, as you have, the dreaded "regression to the mean" usually kicks in and brings it back to normal. Good luck with your system. I hope it is the exception to the rule. |
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