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-   -   Is my 1st system ready? (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12656)

Punter76 24th February 2006 07:08 PM

Is my 1st system ready?
 
Here is a system I have,
have been recording data for a while. Win only results.

Bets : 239
Return : $386.60 (At worst, this is using one tote only)
Profit on turnover : 62%
Winners : 41 (Other placegetters - 47)
S/Rate : 17.15% (1 in 5.83 selections)
Ave Winning Price : $9.43
3 biggest winners : $37, $21, $21.
3 biggest 2nds : $11, $12, $17
3 biggest 3rds : $26, $24, $13

Would you peeps back this religiously, or wait for more results?

marcus25 24th February 2006 07:50 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Punter76
Here is a system I have,
have been recording data for a while. Win only results.

Bets : 239
Return : $386.60 (At worst, this is using one tote only)
Profit on turnover : 62%
Winners : 41 (Other placegetters - 47)
S/Rate : 17.15% (1 in 5.83 selections)
Ave Winning Price : $9.43
3 biggest winners : $37, $21, $21.
3 biggest 2nds : $11, $12, $17
3 biggest 3rds : $26, $24, $13

Would you peeps back this religiously, or wait for more results?


My POT is less than this but still very healthy, and my SR is around 22%, BUT I have to work for it, (maintaining databases etc.), so I would have a go at it.
Mind you, a strike rate hovering around the 17% mark, is in my opinion, in the throw a dart territory.
Never mind that though, if you have a proposal regarding this, let me know.
I am punting for money not glory.
Cheers Marcus

Chrome Prince 24th February 2006 08:33 PM

Punter76,

I'd have a conservative shot at this until you have double the sample.

Putting it simply, I've seen far worse than this being followed, and your profit is not all made up from the longies.

I'd treat with caution, but certainly have a dip at it for a while, just be prepared to be patient until those winners bob up.

Good Luck.

jacfin 25th February 2006 09:11 AM

Run of outs
 
P76
What sort of losing streak are you expecting with a 17% hit rate?

Punter76 25th February 2006 12:24 PM

Jacfin,

By my quick estimates:
Over 1000 bets
20 should be expected.
30 would be unlucky.

I would probably factor in a drawdown of 50 units.
So betting 1% of account, non-reducible on losing run should be very safe.
That is if the system holds up of course.

Sound about right?

Like Chrome suggested, I'll have $10 on each, but before betting decent amounts I'll monitor for another 250 bets.

jacfin 25th February 2006 10:30 PM

P76
Your estimates sound spot on to me.
The problem that i have found with all systems over many years is that when you spot a profitable anomaly, as you have, the dreaded "regression to the mean" usually kicks in and brings it back to normal.
Good luck with your system. I hope it is the exception to the rule.


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