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Tote Voodoo
With Sunline a raging favourite punters
were advised by some "media experts" on the Saturday morning
of the race to obtain value by taking Sunline as a standout for first
in the trifecta. Was this "advice" given to increase TAB turnover?
As an intelligent piece of punting advice it is absolute nonsense. You
cannot miraculously inject value into a horse that pays $1.20 on the tote
for your dollar outlay when it wins. It's like believing in voodoo
and black magic.
Is the tote going to run at a loss on the race? That's the only way value
will be created by taking Sunline as a standout in your trifecta when
95% of your fellow tote punters have done exactly the same thing.
The best collect for the Sunline trifecta was a miserly $35.70 on SuperTab.
Very poor odds considering there were 12 horses in the field and the horse
that ran third, Citra's Prince was a bolter and paid
up to $5.10 on the tote for the place. The chances were that you had to
outlay more than you won and you had to rely on a long shot finishing
third!
Put simply, trying to inject value into a $1.20
winner on the tote is like having a drink from an empty glass. It cannot
be done.
To win on the tote you must play the game differently from the majority
of tote punters otherwise you are guaranteed to get way under the true
odds when you collect which means you must lose long term. Just about
every tote punter used Sunline as a standout in a trifecta. This means
you will get way under the true odds because the tote is not going to
lose if the punters are right. It just reduces the payout to the punters.
The more popular the win is with punters the poorer the tote value for
punters!!
Paradoxically there was a way to get value from Sunline.
A successful punting acquaintance always looks very carefully
at trifecta opportunities when just about everyone sees a horse as an
absolute standout. So he took a 3x6xfield trifecta. He did not take Sunline
to win. He reasoned that because just about every punter was taking Sunline
as a standout to win in a mistaken belief that they could create value
, if by any chance she lost that would wipe out most trifecta combinations.
As a result the payout would be way over the true odds. He lost his money
this time but he doesn't care because he is so far in front and laughing
all the way to the bank.
16/9/2000
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