Hi Guys,

Firstly i'm still alive! I've been reading a lot on here but just not commenting much as i've been quite busy. Secondly, this may be a long winded post so apologies in advance.

Towards the end of last year I found an issue with the way I was backtesting my ratings which meant the horses that had won the races I’d backtested my ratings on received a higher rating then they would if I’d done the ratings pre-race. So at the end of last year I found a way to approach the issue and adjusted it accordingly. At the same time I thought I’d try adapting my ratings given the stats I’d accumulated over the 6-9 months of recording my ratings based on the winners of all those races.

Just before Christmas last year I finished adapting my spreadsheet and started putting it into practice from the 26th of December. I began recording how both my old ratings method and new ratings method’s went from a backing and laying side along with some other backing strategies that I’d found intriguing on here and adapted in line with my own thoughts. The following is a collection of the stats so far and I’m looking for peoples questions, queries, thoughts, ideas, basically anything they think I may not have covered or even ideas on how I could approach staking given the stats. All questions are welcome and will be answered as best I can.

Old Ratings – Backing
The following stats are flat stakes if every selection is backed in every race
Top Rater – 71 wins 205 losses +29.56 units (25.72% SR / 10.71% POT)
2nd Rater – 40 wins 236 losses -11.00 units (14.49% SR / -3.99% POT)
3rd Rater – 30 wins 246 losses -32.76 units (10.87% SR / -11.87% POT)
4th Rater – 32 wins 244 losses -17.04 units (11.59% SR / -6.17% POT)
5th Rater – 35 wins 241 losses +153.89 units (12.68% SR / 55.65% POT)

Note I’ve only provided these basic stats because I don’t plan on betting every rater in every race, the following stats are based on using my ratings plus some filters
Top Rater – 32 wins 116 losses +38.54 units (21.62% SR / 26.04% POT)
2nd Rater – 19 wins 138 losses +14.03 units (12.10% SR / 8.94% POT)
3rd Rater – 12 wins 139 losses +13.67 units (7.95% SR / 9.05% POT)
4th Rater – 15 wins 124 losses +35.56 units (10.79% SR / 25.58% POT)
5th Rater – 14 wins 124 losses +153.32 units (10.14% SR / 111.10% POT)

Top Rater – Avg Win Odds (6.17) / Avg Loss Odds (9.00) / Avg Odds (8.39)
2nd Rater – Avg Win Odds (9.56) / Avg Loss Odds (12.02) / Avg Odds (11.72)
3rd Rater – Avg Win Odds (14.61) / Avg Loss Odds (18.44) / Avg Odds (18.14)
4th Rater – Avg Win Odds (12.38) / Avg Loss Odds (21.77) / Avg Odds (20.76)
5th Rater – Avg Win Odds (22.19) / Avg Loss Odds (29.00) / Avg Odds (28.31)

Top Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (19.10/3.02) / Max/Min Losing Odds (44.04/1.93)
2nd Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (27.70/5.04) / Max/Min Losing Odds (80.00/4.50)
3rd Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (47.27/6.13) / Max/Min Losing Odds (261.77/5.10)
4th Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (23.02/9.20) / Max/Min Losing Odds (75.00/6.08)
5th Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (42.00/9.60) / Max/Min Losing Odds (150.00/8.00)

Winning Streaks – Smallest (1) Largest (4)
Losing Streaks – Smallest (1) Largest (15)

New Ratings – Backing
The following stats are flat stakes if every selection is backed in every race
Top Rater – 76 wins 200 losses +110.70 units (27.54% SR / 40.11% POT)
2nd Rater – 51 wins 225 losses +77.17 units (18.48% SR / 27.96% POT)
3rd Rater – 37 wins 239 losses +20.93 units (13.41% SR / 7.58% POT)
4th Rater – 28 wins 248 losses +30.06 units (10.14% SR / 10.89% POT)
5th Rater – 18 wins 258 losses -11.36 units (6.52% SR / -4.11% POT)

The following is based on using the same filters as the Old Ratings:
Top Rater – 37 wins 134 losses +88.27 units (21.64% SR / 51.62% POT)
2nd Rater – 24 wins 129 losses +82.55 units (15.69% SR / 53.96% POT)
3rd Rater – 14 wins 142 losses +16.93 units (8.97% SR / 10.85% POT)
4th Rater – 13 wins 124 losses +88.99 units (9.49% SR / 64.96% POT)
5th Rater – 6 wins 127 losses +43.82 units (4.51% SR / 32.94% POT)

Top Rater – Avg Win Odds (7.42) / Avg Loss Odds (9.48) / Avg Odds (9.04)
2nd Rater – Avg Win Odds (10.43) / Avg Loss Odds (13.63) / Avg Odds (13.13)
3rd Rater – Avg Win Odds (13.14) / Avg Loss Odds (18.38) / Avg Odds (17.97)
4th Rater – Avg Win Odds (18.52) / Avg Loss Odds (22.74) / Avg Odds (22.34)
5th Rater – Avg Win Odds (31.45) / Avg Loss Odds (25.87) / Avg Odds (26.12)

Top Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (42.00/3.02) / Max/Min Losing Odds (42.00/2.03)
2nd Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (36.24/3.75) / Max/Min Losing Odds (108.39/3.93)
3rd Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (25.25/5.04) / Max/Min Losing Odds (200.00/5.00)
4th Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (47.27/8.12) / Max/Min Losing Odds (162.25/6.60)
5th Rater – Max/Min Win Odds (92.25/9.00) / Max/Min Losing Odds (80.00/8.60)

Winning Streaks – Smallest (1) Largest (4)
Losing Streaks – Smallest (1) Largest (8)

Old Ratings Lays
Note: All recorded at laying to liability of $90 (as I follow this currently)
Top Lay – 95 wins 5 losses +$550.88 (95.00% SR / 6.12% POT)
2nd Lay – 23 wins 3 losses +$20.08 (88.46% SR / 0.86% POT)
3rd Lay – 3 wins 0 losses +$18.03 (100.00% SR / 6.68% POT)

Can provide the odds and streaks stats if people are interested

New Ratings Lays
Note: All recorded at laying to liability of $90 (as I follow this currently)
Top Lay – 121 wins 8 losses +$427.50 (93.80% SR / 3.68% POT)
2nd Lay – 39 wins 3 losses +$279.26 (92.86% SR / 7.39% POT)
3rd Lay – 12 wins 0 losses +$215.21 (100.00% SR / 19.93% POT)

Can provide the odds and streaks stats if people are interested

Improver Strategy
Took some of the rules from one of the threads on here and adjusted them, there have been limited selections so far but here are the results so far:

7 Winners 24 Losers +31.98 units (22.58% SR / 103.16% POT)

Trifecta’s
I take the selections from my New Ratings with filters and use them as my selections to come first, and then i use the remaining top 5 raters for second and third. The following stats are based on betting for 100% of dividend

63 Winners 191 Losers +$2033.50 (22.59% SR / 22.59% POT)

Note: One of the trifecta’s paid $1647.90 which made up the bulk of the profits but thats the point of it, to tread water or make a small profit until my ratings hit a big payout.

Special Strategy
This is simply based on some filters that were glaringly obvious when looking at the stats i’d recorded previously.

33 Winners 93 Losers +158.55 units (26.19% SR / 125.84% POT)

Once again can provide odds stats if people are interested along with the consecutive wins/losses etc.

As a final note the only strategy i’m currently betting is the lay old ratings strategy which unfortunately I haven’t been doing since the start. However so far since I started on 10th of January i’m +$280.17 with 50 wins and 4 losses.

Anyhow this post is long enough now and I understand its early days and need more data but i’m happy with the results so far, especially with my new ratings which seem to be pretty accurate.

Welcome back mate.
Read some of your filters which have helped strengthen my selections

Have you thought of filtering courses, evajb001.
For example in New Zealand we have race courses such as Hastings and Avondale which particularly suit front runners.

__________________
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry

Hi Kiwi,

I haven't really thought of filtering by courses. All of my recorded stats are in the form of the code for that day on tatts (i.e. AR, MR, SR, BR, QR etc) so the actual course could vary for MR between sandown, caulfield, flemington or moonee valley. I do know that previously my ratings did well everywhere besides QR.

Maybe I should check what the stats are even just for the tatts codes above and see if there are any trends so far, thanks for the suggestion.

Hi evajb001,

Great to see you're still up and at 'em, as I do enjoy your posts!

What prices are you using for results?

I was looking at the price brackets or your winners and thought a bot may be handy to set certain price parameters for your selections (say $3-$8).

I know you've said previously you're not a fan of the Betfair layout, however the bots do have their own interfaces.

Anyhoo, keep up the fine work and best of luck as always!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

I've just had a quick look through at the performance by race code and there aren't huge differences between them although PR (WA Races) does seem to perform the best by quite a bit, particularly the top 3 raters. However I also think there aren't enough races recorded yet so its probably something I need to come back to.

For interest I also just checked the performance by day, turns out weekdays do ok, not bad not great but saturdays are the best day by far which is interesting, I thought it may have been the worst.

Hey TS,

I've actually started using Betfair and i've forced myself to get used to their website and also using the website/app on my iphone which is quite easy/handy to use as well. Basically I had to force myself so that I could follow the lay selections since theres no other way to go about it.

So all prices i've recorded are at betfair price (SP) as this is the simplest for me to use and record. The odds in the data provided in the first post are all ex-commission however the profit figures are all including betfair commission.

One of the main filters I use is that the Betfair SP price is above my ratings price which is why my avg odds are so high. The good thing about this is as you've suggested previously I think TS, I can set my backing price limit on SP on the website without even using a bot and it basically ensures I'm always getting overs on my bets otherwise they simply aren't placed. Well thats the theory anyway.

Nice one evajb001,

I'm glad to see you've 'come to the dark side......' Ha ha

But seriously, looks like you're back on track in a BIG WAY! The minimum SP price setting is a really handy tool which I also use.

Hope you have a huge 2013 on the punt!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Do you have any stats to say how favourites do in staying races 2000m+
I suggest they are often beaten, especially if they lack New Zealand horses in their pedigree.
I would be laying them hard out.

__________________
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry

Hi kiwi,

When you say favourites do you mean tote/BF favourites or my top rater?

The stats on my top rater for distances over 1999 metres is 5 winners 30 losers for -6.48 units (14.29% SR / -18.50% POT), so your right there is a loss there but i'd say the sample size is probably too small at the moment to draw too many conclusions.

I won't give away my exact filters but i'll say the two things i've found to improve the backing side the most are field size and form in the track conditions. I've found the form in the track conditions also very important to the lay side as well.

While I don't use it as a filter at the moment, one of the other filters I think can be quite helpful is days last start (7-21) although basically everyone is aware of this and probably use it already to some extent which makes it less appealing as a filter.