I subscribe to a service that digitally times each race and each 200m sectional which they then calculate to ratings based on a benchmark (you may already know who I am talking about) so i have access to accurate times and ratings. The issue is a fast run race will result in a fast rating but a slower run race can often point to future winners based on acceleration.

I would like to try and quantify each performance based on factors like early pace, late sectional rating, overall time rating and the early/late ratio (abilty to accelerate). I am just having some issues some of the calculations so if anyone has a sound mathematical knowledge and equations/formulas I could really use some help.

Cheers,

Mat.

Mat,

Send me an email - jbevans@internode.on.net

Might have some ideas for you to try and/or happy to fiddle with numbers and see what we can come up with.

Josh

Cheers Josh, email will be on the way shortly.

Mat.

mattio,

What exactly are you asking for? Do you want to know if they have a statistical advantage ? Mathematical formulae is a very fairly broad topic.

If you post what you are looking for I can perhaps provide the answers if Josh can't.

Good gambling is all about maths in one way or another.

Would it be something like, if it accelerated for 200M, how much time did it take to do that section of 200M, even if it had 200M left to race, yet did not win ?
But, it showed the "best" acceleration when compared to the other runner's sections of acceleration, if they did accelerate.

So then a 12 horse race, if our "best" was 7th when accelerated for 200M and got to 4th with 200M to go, could not keep it up for that race

So what was it's time for 200M (7 seconds) Runner 1
So what was it's time for 200M (5 seconds) Runner 2

What's an average 200M in fast ( 10 )
What's an average 200m in slow (20 )

10 - 20 = -10 + 7 = -3 Runner 1

10 - 20 = -10 + 5 = -5 Runner 2

Bet on Runner 2

Have you looked into Impact Values Mattio.
You need a lot of data, but I'm sure it would shed some light.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 407,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thanks for the replies guys, what I am trying to achieve is to find a value that represents the true merit in a run based primarily on the pace leading to the 600m. As mentioned if a race is run fast it will generally have a fast overall rating and vice versa if the early pace is slow.

The key is determining what performances are better than others, if a 100 rating equals the benchmark and horse "A" runs the early section in a 107 and the final 600m in a 98 to give an overall rating of 105. Horse "B" comes from a different race where the early pace was 94 and the final 600m he rated 110 to give an overall of 104. Which run was truly better?

Josh has come up with a multiplier formula to exponentially reward or punish the horses based on their early rating and it is something I am going to trial on some data and see how it looks.

I am open to other ideas on this so if someone else wants to have a look at it I can provide some sample data.

Cheers,

Mat.

UB I could use some help with probability based on speed ratings to help me calculate odds if that is in your field of expertise?

Cheers,

Mat.