Hi team

I know you blokes like hearing hair brain schemes from newbie's hence my post.

New poster but been lurking and learning for quite some time, years actually. As background I have previously been a fan of backing for the place with all sorts of accumulators etc. Did all right but after a few short fav losing always knocked the bank around. Also dutched 4 or 5 in the market to back for a while and chased loses. After initial success and thinking the holy grail had been found lost 4 races in a row and saw the considerable bank disappear, got spooked and stopped before total annihilation.

Late last year revived my favourite place backing and started backing the football codes and tennis then I read about Betfair and the better odds available. Opened an account & spotted the pink lay buttons and that got me researching.

You guys have been excellent. Over time Mark's, Chrome Prince and others posts have had me really had me thinking.

Ok so I have got this far

1. Trying to get a book greater than 100% to ensure a profit.
2. Looking at each race individually to see which strategy is best employed
Looking at tackling the top 5 to cover most of the 100% book
3. Have a $300 bank so betting to a liability of $30 (so I last a while should a bad run eventuate)
4. Using SP $30 for runners greater than 6.00
5. Laying fav at $110, 2nd $105, 3rd $102 if trying to get prices matched pre jump.
6. Races 1400m to 1600m ? Still thinking!
7. Number of runners? Still watching odds and the 100% book to see what happens in the smaller fields!
8 OZ tracks all very easy for layers to watch the finishing runners so hard to get big over reactions. MValley may be the exception as the finish line comes quick after the bend and TV never shows it that well, the field always seems to pack up big time on this track on the final bend - IMO.

So I have been........manually on betfair (no trading software)

Asking for lay odds pre jump to ensure the book is over 100% and if not matched before jump letting it go in play to get the 1st - 6th Fav matched at shorter than SP to smash the 100% book. Can only go to 6.00 to stay inside my $30 cap. Problem is sometimes they don't all get matched. Been quite successful on Saturday's however. Not being super aggressive in the prices, only chasing 6.00 in play for 4-6th fav.

or

Laying everything except the 1st & 2nd Fav on SP $30 liability and letting the fav's lay price go in play to ensure a greater than 100% book is achieved when a short price is matched. Again I need the fav's to shorten in the in play and get matched. Usually a fav that will lead or be prominent in running.


Comments welcome, sorry for a long post. Looking to make a few K each year for some airfares to go skiing overseas with the family!

Welcome Willy44, sounds like you've got the handle on it! Tip for you, don't post any corrections to other forumites grammar, doesn't go down too well it seems...!!
Success is only part technique, the rest is mental control of your own emotions, something you can only overcome with experience. Just ease yourself in, try and specialise so that your learning curve isn't so large. All the very best, RP.

Good idea making that first on your list. It's the Holy Grail of laying.

Mark's the resident ex pert on that, although I've never understood just how he does it.

Good luck Willy.

Good idea. Leave granma out of it.

Willy
Do yourself a favour and download the FREE Evolution software from racingtraders.co.uk. Their is no point using a horse and cart when you can have a car for the same price. It's easy to use.
Spot the deliberate spelling error !!!

As far as I can tell, their isn't an error.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

How about the 'their' TWOBETS?

Quite so. A very common error on all racing forums.

Thanks SpeedyBen. I will check out the free software. Your thread on 'in play stats' with CP is very interesting as well. Food for thought. Looking forward to Saturday to place a few trades and see what happens!

I detect a tongue in cheek reply their, Twobets