The other day an unhappy chappy on this board remarked that nowadays it was necessary to bet two horses in a race in order to achieve satisfactory results.
This, of course, leads to the heinous proposition of "dutching".

So I had a 'first-cut' look.

Using the Top 4 in the TAB queue (which generate +/- 72% of winners). NO other criteria except that ALL races have 10 - 12 starters (av. size of a race in Oz is +/- 10.9).

Have a look at the small attached results file and make your own decision.
YES, the $$$ are TAB's so they're at the bottom end of the scale, but that's where you need to start before you head into the whirligig world of Best-Fluc and so on. It'll need a considerable shift to overcome the size of the TAB commission.

However, the more I tinker with this nebulous world the more I reckon that Race Selection is the key to success.

Attached Files

The DutchConundrum.xls (11.0 KB, 1987 views)

Most Professional Bettors would bet 4 + horses in the 1 race.

Betting 1 or 2 horses per race (no matter how one would choose their races) in my opinion would never lead to long term profitability.

Thank you for posting as it might lead to some interesting replies.

Cheers
darky

My understanding is BetfairSP is pretty close to a 100% market which means its only the BF commission that creates the LOT. So backing favorites on BetfairSP people with no commission discounts would achieve a LOT of around 7%, can anyone confirm this is approximately correct?

If the above is correct you can basically create favorite or last start winner systems that might only break even or have a small LOT on TAB divvies but will actually be profitable on Betfair SP.

Mornin' o bronzed one :-),

Looking at Top 4 ....

Using the .xls example and going for a 72% WSR (AND remembering that it's TAB results) we get a long term result of $1.18 as opposed to a B/E need of $1.39 which (of course) leaves one behind the 8 ball. To make consistent profits substantial price sniping is necessary. Perhaps evabj is on the right track.

I subscribed for a couple of months to Stats Bets from 12follow. They provide 3 selections for a small number of races everyday with a set of rules as to how you stake your bet. They claim 20% POT which is right if you use their figures. I did well for the first month around 17%POT but in the second month I noticed their application of the rules were different to mine so I had a look and they prove their figures using BSP which we all know you dont really know the price to the race is over most of the time.

I noticed that on one occasion (I didn't spend too much time looking) one of their successes used a price other than BSP and when I questioned this they said they got matched at that price. When I pointed out they claim to prove to BSP and they now look dodgy, I got some other half ********** excuse but I think from then on they stuck to BSP.

I stopped subscribing because I work for a living and couldn't get my bot to cover all the rules and a go at Market Feeder pro triggers did my head in and I had a month we're I went behind even though they were still profiting.

I stopped subscribing and now do my own selections and use their rules in my own system and February returned 14% POT which I'm happy with and March looks about the same.

Other than a system I use on very short priced favourites, this is my most profitable system so I would agree, backing more horses in a race is the key to profit.

I concur. As does the good Lord, I believe.

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Yes and No. lol. Its not that easy. Its different depending on what races/country you are looking at.

If you stuck to UK races and major black type races then 5% is generally your loss.









Sssshhhhh. But seriously has anyone actually thought about why do most professional punters bet 4+ horses in a race ? Its not because tey can't decide between 4 horses. It's because they understand risk, and money management. And at the heart of this is they understand they need consistency. Consistently winning is the key. Your in a better mood, your in better mind set and your bank is generally going up every day.

If you need a hand with a trigger for MFP just let me know. No charge.

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Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

BF win markets are indeed very accurate. However, the place market has serious anomalies in the UK. I don't know about Oz.

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Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.

Thanks Speedy, I might take you up on your kind offer. Do you want me to post the rules on here?