Last week's value bet was cashed by Liverpool supporters.

I am out of breath following all the 8 rounds played since June 30 in less than 6 weeks. Imagine how the players feel.

Here is the final round of a certifiably crazy EPL season.

Stay well until we meet again in cyber space.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 38.doc (61.5 KB, 1554 views)

The crazy 2019-2020 EPL season has mercifully come to an end. We can look back and learn. For the first 29 rounds, we carefully avoided congested fixtures and made a 43% profit on turnover, placing value bets and betting amounts as suggested by my round-by-round posts.

Had anyone bet on the 9 rounds of congested fixtures, there would have been a 35% loss. If anyone bet equally on all underdogs for those 9 congested rounds, they would have had a 43% profit, which tells you how unpredictable the top teams were. Unexpectedly, they would rest top players or just go through the motions to preserve their players for cup matches. A number of hopeless underdogs won.

When play resumed with round 30, all rounds had congested fixtures through round 38, the last round. After rounds 30 and 31, I wrote that the games seemed to be reasonably played without the major surprises we usually have with congested fixtures. For rounds 32-38, using value bets with the usually amounts bet, there was a 7.7% profit on turnover. Betting on all underdogs would only have paid a 3.5% profit. The congested fixtures for round 32-38 were much more predicable than earlier congested fixtures, but still less than half as profitable as the average for all past seasons.

That’s like saying someone had COVID but the case wasn’t as bad as it could have been. I think it’s better not to have COVID at all and next season, I think we should resume not betting when fixtures are congested. The teams should have about a week before and after each match or fixtures are congested. I understand that there will be an effort to schedule to avoid congested fixtures due to cup matches.

Meanwhile, stay well!

Ray Stefani

I thought it was about time to restart my English Premier League predictions. If it wasn’t crazy 2020, I would have thought the scores for Round 4 had to be wrong. Tottenham beat Man U 6-1 and Aston Villa beat defending champion Liverpool 7-2. Can you imagine 13 goals being let in by Man U and Liverpool in the same day, let alone the same century? One of those goals was priceless. AV kicked a hard cross in front of the Liverpool goal, which hit a Liverpool defender on the side of his face and banked 90 degrees, like a billiard ball off the rail, into the Liverpool goal. Even Liverpool coach Juergen Klopp had to laugh about that one.

Before Round 4, all but 2 EPL teams played mid-week cup matches so Round 4 had congested fixtures. Consistent with my earlier posts about congested rounds, if you bet equally on all underdogs for Round 4, you would have had a 72% profit.

After 38 games, the home teams have three more losses than wins. After all, it is 2020.

Here are Round 5 predictions. Bear in mind that between Rounds 5 and 6, 8 teams play cup matches, so their EPL matches are congested fixtures for Rounds 5 and 6. Those are: Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City, Man U and Tottenham.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 5.doc (60.0 KB, 1312 views)

Every week, something happens to remind us that this is crazy 2020. I warned about congested fixtures for Round 5. There had been only three draws in the first four rounds, but then up popped six draws in Round 5. The home teams had a losing record through Round 4 and then had another losing week in Round 5.

We have major issues with the ratings at this point. There were incredibly big upsets among usually top teams as I mentioned in earlier sends. That dropped their ratings and raised the unexpected winners’ ratings by an unusual large amount. Usually it takes a couple of weeks for either the ratings of top teams to move back up or show us they aren’t that good this year. Continued congested fixtures and training interruptions have made meaningful adjustments difficult for top teams. For example, due to Champion’s League and Europa League fixtures, for Rounds 6 and 7, there will be congested fixtures for Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man U, Leicester, Arsenal, and Tottenham.

It’s pretty hard to believe that in the EPL table, Liverpool is third, Tottenham is seventh, Man City is eleventh and Man U is twenty third.

My advice is to be very cautious for at least two or three more weeks.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 6.doc (59.5 KB, 1227 views)

I can't say that ratings got adjusted closer to where they ought to be. There were still four draws and home teams only won 2 and lost 4 matches, while drawing 4 to have an even worse losing record for the season.

Remember that seven teams have congested fixtures for Round 7: Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man U, Arsenal, Man City, and Tottenham.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

These do not get uploaded somehow

Attached Files

EPL Round 7.doc (60.0 KB, 1226 views)

The teams seem to have found a way to accommodate congested fixtures. I mentioned that Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manu U, Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham all played mid-week European Champions League or Europa League matches. All but Tottenham won. On the weekend, two played versus each other and the other five won.

I mentioned some outrageously one-sided upsets of top teams that played havoc with the ratings of any teams involved that week and teams that played involved teams later. I found a way to adjust for those massively unusual results. I think this week’s ratings are accurate.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 8.doc (60.0 KB, 1208 views)

The adjustments I made because of some outrageous upsets in the first few weeks seem to have worked. My favourites won 6 of the 8 games not drawn. Value bets cashed by Leicester and West Ham supporters.

Round 9 will be played 21-22 November. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 9.doc (60.0 KB, 1212 views)

It was great to have a round without congested fixtures. My favourites won 6 of the 8 non-drawn matches. Value bets cashed for West Ham and Tottenham supporters.

Seven teams play mid-week cup matches in Round 10 so beware for Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Leicester, Man City and West Ham.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 10.doc (60.0 KB, 1175 views)

The lessons we’ve learned really paid off in Round 10. Seven teams had congested fixtures in Round 10 and will also have congested fixtures in Round 11: Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool, Man City, Man U, and Tottenham. Arsenal, Leicester, Liverpool and Chelsea were strong favourites in Round 10, but their congested fixtures suggested not betting on them in Round 10. The first two lost and the second two drew in Round 10.

There were four matches without congested fixtures. Bookmaker odds suggested value bets supporting favourite West Ham and underdogs Newcastle and Leeds. All three won, cashing value bets resulting in a 200% profit.

Good luck with Round 11, being careful of teams with congested fixtures..

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 11.doc (60.0 KB, 1064 views)