The surprisingly one-sided wins of round 1 gave way to surprising ties in round 2. What does round 3 have in store? Time will tell.

The computer has been blowing its diodes trying to make sense out of this season. It told me that I have to be kidding that Chelsea in winless. I should check my results and rerun.

We certainly have to wait four rounds and maybe five before we can believe that the ups and downs are even close to averaging out so we have a good handle on who's who this season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 3.doc (59.0 KB, 870 views)

Hopefully they're not silicon diodes Ray

Pre-season EPL managerial changes

Brighton & Hove Albion out - Chris Hughton in - Graham Potter
Chelsea out - Maurizio Sarri in - Frank Lampard
Newcastle United out - Rafael Benítez in - Steve Bruce

After the favourites won by unexpectedly large margins in round 1 and then drew unexpectedly in round 2, we should have known that they would lose unexpectedly in round 3. Put it this way, if you bet one unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have gotten back 31 units (a nice 210% profit), led by Newcastle paying 13.50, when it scored its first win of the season, away at Tottenham. Newcastle’s reward is 19th place.

We could talk about home advantage so far, but there is none. The home teams lost 7 games in round 3. The home and away teams have scored the same number of goals so far.

So, what about round 4? Maybe the craziness is over for now and the teams will play competitive soccer. Holding your breath for that might end in a trip to the hospital, but we can only hope.

Let’s see what round 4 has in store.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 4.doc (59.5 KB, 851 views)

Hi Ray

Question - in your word doc attached it references NFL. Are you going to be giving us your great insights and superb odds for the season starting next week?

Kiwiz added a comment recently in the NFL forum

Sure hope so

Cheers
Fatcat

Hi Guys,

I last took on the NFL 10 years ago. It might be fun, but I would need a lot of time to run the last three seasons to get some starting ratings for a new season. The way I see it, my English Premier League and Super Rugby predictions already deal with enough sports sweating and bleeding (I mean for gamblers, the players sweat and bleed too, of course).

How about betting odds at the 2024 Olympics in Paris for break dancing. Now THAT would be a challenge.

Ray

Hi to all,

I am cautiously optimistic that my ratings have made sense of the season so far. For week 4, my favourites won 5 of the 6 matches that weren’t drawn. The loss and four draws probably sharpened the accuracy of the season’s ratings for the rest. The “cautious” part is that after 40 matches, the home teams have won 15, drawn 12 and lost 13: that’s not much home advantage at all, which is far from normal. Let’s be a bit cautious about week 5. We’ll see if order has been restored to a disorderly season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 5.doc (59.5 KB, 818 views)

For round 5, I suggested that we should be cautious and see if the disorderliness was over. Nope. Second from the bottom Norwich beat second from the top Man City. If you bet 1 unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have more than doubled your money; because, Norwich paid 15.00, Southampton paid 2.87 and Bournemouth paid 3.00.

All the unexpected results, including draws, ought to have adjusted some ratings that were not quite right, if the teams will be consistent from now on.
Here come round 6. Again, let’s be careful until we see some consistency.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 6.doc (60.0 KB, 815 views)

So, did Round 6 show finally lack of craziness? Well, Man City got mad after losing to Norwich in round 5, inciting then to score 5 goals in the first 18 minutes against Watford. That had never happened in EPL history. In round 5, if you bet for all the underdog,s you would have made a 100% profit. Now that there is agreement between my rankings, the EPL table and bookie favorites about which teams are best, a bet for all the underdogs in round 6 didn’t make a 100% profit, but there would have been a 58% profit. The craziness persists. I don’t think we can expect other this season, but that does make the EPL interesting. So, here are are my predictions for round 7. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 7.doc (60.0 KB, 800 views)

The million dollar question. Cash out or hold???

Currently Ray's predictions for round 7 are all spot on, with only Leicester to win against Newcastle and ManU to win against Arsenal games outstanding. I took a multi for all 10 games. Cash out is currently sitting at a quarter of the total if it were to land, and cash out is 100x what I waged

Thoughts on Leicester winning?? Thoughts on ManU winning???

Decisions decisions

No crazies during Round 7. My favourites won all 7 matches that weren’t drawn. I hope Fatcat did well whichever path he chose. The last two matches went his way with a win by Leicester and at least a draw by ManU. It depends on how the Multi handles draws.

Here comes Round 8. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 8.doc (60.0 KB, 772 views)