Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so

A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00

Thanks for the kind words. I'll send my Round 1 picks in a day or two. I start with the info from the end of last seaosn, so it's always good to be cautious for the first few weeks whilst the computer tries to make sense of the new season and the promoted teams. It blows it's fuse trying to make sense of the congested fixtures, but that's another story.

Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani

Hi to all my soccer friends.

The EPL season is about to start. I start with last year’s ratings for the returning teams. For the promoted teams, I use the averages for the relegated teams. It’s a good idea to bet cautiously at first while the ratings adjust for the new season.

If you are new to my predictions, you can read the explanation that follows the predictions. It’s especially important for your sanity, to read my caution about betting when there are congested fixtures. We have had several weeks with congested fixtures when it would have been profitable to bet on all the underdogs. The fact that such a crazy strategy would work is reason enough to stay away from those weeks

Good luck with our new season. Last year was amazing, with only EPL teams in the finals of the Champions League and Europa League.

Now, it’s nearly time to have a pint and watch the first match.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 1.doc (59.0 KB, 866 views)

Welcome back Ray
Got $4.35 for the reds early

Cheers Ray

EPL 2019/20 Winner

Man City $1.53
Liverpool $4
Tottenham $21
Man United $41
Chelsea $41
Arsenal $51

Others $151 & over

VAR in full swing already
49 checks in the opening seven EPL games

..we've lost another player to overseas teams..shane lowry
..jason davidson & andy keogh already gone..matthew spiranovic future unsure

In Round 1, my favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren’t drawn. On the other hand, there was a big surprise when Watford lost 0-3 at home to Brighton. Man U had a big win at home over Chelsea 4-0. Man City opened strong away beating West Ham away, 5-0. I mention those matches because my system makes the biggest adjustments early in the season to catch up with team changes. As a result, there were some big up and down adjustments because of the matches I just mentioned. It’s a good idea to be cautious for next two or three weeks to be sure the adjustments were justified.

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 2.doc (59.5 KB, 785 views)