Go The Reds! Prosperous New Year to you Ray.

I hope many of you had a chance to watch the Man City-Liverpool match. There are good games, great games and then a new adjective is needed for that match. Of course, there were enough amazing individual skills to fill your screen. Even more impressive were the team tactics. One team would find a way to get through the defense to shoot on goal, only to have seemingly unstoppable goals cleared away from the goal line: all of this after both teams had just finished three matches with little rest between. It was a master class in soccer gamesmanship. City and the Reds are tied on goal difference. Liverpool leads by 0.1 rating points. Should be a race to the finish

Only 4 of my favorites won the 7 matches that were not drawn. a typical scenario for congested fixtures. I suggested for round 21 that contrarian betting methods seem to work, as crazy as that is. If you bet one unit on each of my 10 underdogs for Round 21, you would have gotten back 4 on Leicester, 4 on Burnley and another 4.33 on Crystal Palace for a total of 12.33, giving you a 23% profit on turnover, making four straight weeks that crazy strategy returned a profit.

All teams have ample rest before the next round, so hopefully sanity will be restored.

Good luck with round 22.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 22.doc (57.0 KB, 389 views)

In Round 22, Burnley and Watford supporters went away happy.

The league table is about where it was before the recent glut of 40 matches. Tottenham leads on points. Man City has a lead on goal difference. The top two have opened a small lead ahead of the contenders. We should have an really close race to the wire!

Enjoy the fun.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 23.doc (57.0 KB, 378 views)

Rounds 24 and 25 have congested fixtures. Round 24 will be at midweek followed by round 24 that weekend.

I noticed a big change this season. A 13-season average for the EPL showed 27% draws. Last season, with 27% draws after round 23, there had been 62 draws in 230 matches. This season we have only had 19% draws, a record low. After 230 matches there have only been 44 draws. That’s 18 less than last season, almost one less draw each week. Maybe the EPL told the teams not to go through the motions sometimes and play to win instead. Works for me.

Good luck with round 24.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 24.doc (57.5 KB, 402 views)

Hi Ray

Just found this thread and I am eager to learn more.

Using this current week as an example.

Bournemouth V Chelsea - game fails Rules 1 & 3

Arsenal V Cardiff - fails rules 3 & 4

Fulham V Brighton - Value Bet? with Brighton RB 3.5 > RF 1.76.
Working from a $1000 bank as an example - what bet would be made here?

Hudderfield V Everton - Everton RB $1.97 > Rf 1.79
Is this a qualifying bet?

Man U V Burnley - fails rule 3 & 4

Wolves V West Ham - West Ham RB 3.85 > Rf 3.01
Bet?

Liverpool V Leicester - 3 & 4

Newcastle V Man City - 3 & 4

Southhampton V Crystal P - Crystal P RB 3.30 > RF 2.64
Bet?

Tottenham V Watford - Tottenham RB1.72 > RF 1.55
Bet?

I hope that makes sense but I am just trying to show my interpretation.

Thanks for your interest.

First, you need to go back over this season and last season and read my commentary on congested fixtures. If a team had a week's rest then plays again in 1/2 week and when a team plays a weekend, mid week and another weekend, those are examples of congested fixtures when teams may chose to reserve players and/or energy. I suggest not betting any congested fixtures. Performances may be unexpectedly diverge for what we would expect. Please read my commentary. Round 24 will be followed by mid-week games, so fixtures are congested so I suggest not betting Round 24. Of course, if you have strong feelings about any games, that is your choice to make.

There would be value bets on the teams you mentioned were it not for congested fixtures. Please read my example to understand my suggestion not to bet more than 10% of bankroll on any one game and not more 25% of bankroll any one week. The numbers based on 1000 are just suggestions, of course.

Regarding Brighton, using the formulas I gave, the Kelly bet would be 1000 (3.5/1.76 - 1)/2.5/2. That would be 198 but I suggest not betting more than 100 (10% of the 1000 bankroll)

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray

I had noted the congested fixtures but had not looked if this round was one yet.

I was more needing the clarification on staking and if my assumptions on what games would qualify were on the mark.

You have answered that for me now!

I will set off to read the past posts now and follow along before embarking on real cash til I’m confident I have the application down pat.

Thanks for your reply and the extensive answers.

Brian

Yes, interesting stats Ray, thanks

The dreaded monster of congested fixtures has reared its ugly head again. In earlier commentaries, I pointed out that all three of Man City’s previous losses had been during an accelerated schedule (congested fixtures). I also pointed out that during congested fixtures, the play on the field becomes so unpredictable that the crazy gambling scheme of betting on every underdog becomes profitable.

Sure enough, in Round 24, Man City lost for a fourth time during a congested fixture. If someone bet one unit on all 10 underdogs, they would have more than doubled their money winning 5.00 when Bournemouth beat Chelsea and another 16 when Newcastle beat Man City.

Liverpool have passed Man City in the computer ratings and have a nice five-point lead in the table. Tottenham did not drop points.

Let’s see what crazy things happen in a couple of days during Round 25. I do caution about betting seriously on congested fixtures.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 25.doc (58.0 KB, 334 views)

Looking promising kiwiz