Here we go with Round 3 of Aotearoa.

It’s hard to have good and bad luck average out with only two games per week, and maybe only one value bet, if that. When the Australian Super Rugby series starts, at least we will have four games per week.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 10.doc (51.5 KB, 1429 views)

Be cautious because we don't know how the layoff has affected the Australia teams. The Western Force are an even bigger mystery next week.

Here comes Round 4 of Aotearoa, complete with fans!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 11.doc (53.5 KB, 1431 views)

The Western Force now re-enters competition. I took their last rating from the end of the 2017 season, but we have no idea how good the team is today. It will take 3 or 4 games to have a good idea, so be cautious with them until later.

The rating system takes the season as a whole, not just the recent Aotearoa matches and the Australian matches
.
Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 12.doc (53.5 KB, 1468 views)

There are many of reasons to be cautious when betting. We need at least this week and next week to get a good handle on the strengths of the Australian team, post-Covid. The Western Force haven’t played recently. They have affected the Waratahs rating from last week and this week they will affect the Reds. After week 4, ratings ought to be more accurate. The whole season is counted.

The home teams have only outscored visitors by 6 points for the 14 games since we restarted. That’s 0.4 points per game. That indicates a big change playing under Covid conditions. There had been more than a 4-point advantage per game, playing at home, before Covid. I may have to change the home advantage for the rest of the season.

Good luck and good health

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 13.doc (54.0 KB, 1453 views)

We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.

I wrote that before Round 1. The Sunwolves started great in Round 1, winning over the Rebels. Then, in true Sunwolves fashion, they lost the next five before the season was halted, thanks to the toughest opponent ever, Covid. I kept the season rolling, statistically speaking, with AOTEAROA and AU competitions. The ratings are cumulative for all games played, including the rejuvenated Force. Here are all 16 ratings. The Sunwolves are last. Too bad. Like you wrote, we will never know if they could have had a comeback in AU competition..

Computer Ratings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLACE TEAM RATING
1 Crusaders(N) 106.4
2 Sharks(S) 104.3
3 Blues(N) 103.1
4 Hurricanes(N) 100.3
5 Jaguars 99.6
6 Stormers(S) 98.2
7 Chiefs(N) 97.4
8 Brumbies(A) 96.2
9 Reds(A) 94.0
10 Bulls(S) 90.3
11 Highlanders(N) 90.3
12 Rebels(A) 89.8
13 W.Force(A) 84.7
14 Waratahs(A) 82.9
15 Lions(S) 82.1
16 Sunwolves 67.1


I mentioned a few weeks ago, that since restarting, the home advantage has dropped quite a bit, point-wise, from 4.7 points per game down to 1. I reran the rounds since we restarted and got better results by a little bit. This week's predictions are with the lower home advantage.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 14.doc (54.5 KB, 1382 views)

In 22 games since the restart, the visitors have now outscored the home teams. Three of four visitors are favourites this week, so the odd trend should continue.

Good luck in this weirdest of years.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 15.doc (54.5 KB, 1349 views)

AOTEAROA is winding down, with one round remaining after this round. AU will have 4 more rounds followed by two playoff rounds.

The oddity is home disadvantage. Visitors have outscored the home teams by 2 points per game for the 26 games since we restarted. The good news is that 80% of my favourites have won. There have been rather few value bets and that is a problem when you want to have good and bad luck average out.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 16.doc (54.5 KB, 1348 views)

Last week I mentioned that the home teams had been outscored by the visitors for the 26 games since the restart. In round 16, my two away favourites both lost, but the home team Rebels and Waratahs both cashed value bets, so I am happy with that. All four home teams won, outscoring the visitors by 64 points to go ahead point-wise for the new season.

Here comes the last AOTEAROA round. AU has five more rounds after this week.

Good luck and also keep beating COVID,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 17.doc (54.5 KB, 1303 views)