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#5322
19th December 2017, 08:33 AM
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EPL round 19
You now have the 10 matches the EPL will play just before Christmas. Then, there are 10 more around Boxing Day, yet to come.
So, bottom-dweller Crystal Place, having been unable to score a single goal in 10 consecutive away matches somehow beat mid-table Leicester 3-0, at Leicester. They play away to West Ham next. Which Crystal Palace team will show up: the one that was scoreless in 10 away matches in a row or the one that beat Leicester there, 3-0. We will soon know. Regardless of matches and bets, Merry Christmas to all of you and yours! Ray Stefani 
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#5323
24th December 2017, 08:34 AM
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EPL Round 20
In my last weekend send, I questioned how mid-table Leicester (with a large value bet) could possibly lose at home to a bottom table Crystal Palace team which had been scoreless in their last 10 away matches. The answer came on Tuesday. Leicester was obviously jogging through the Crystal Palace match to put priority on the quarter-final League cup match at home on Tuesday against top table Man City. Leicester took Man City to penalty kicks before losing. Then, on Saturday, Leicester entertained number two Man U, holding them to a 3-3 draw. The Crystal Place match was obviously of no interest to Leicester. That is what make the EPL so frustrating. Form (and logical betting) goes out the window when a team jogs through an EPL match to put priority on a trophy in the League Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Champions League. I wish EPL teams would put a warning on games when they plan to lack any competitive interest whatsoever.
Also, 5 matches were drawn of 10 in round 19, indicating some fatigue and a resulting agreement to share the points. In spite of that frustration, I wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Ray
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#5324
29th December 2017, 04:24 PM
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EPL Round 21
Do you feel overworked once in a while? By 2 January, the EPL teams will have played 9 matches in about 38 days, about one match every 4 days. I am tired just thinking about it.
Happy New Year to all. Ray Stefani
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#5325
1st January 2018, 06:18 AM
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EPL Round 22, already
In soccer as in life, Christmas is the time for giving, especially when so many soccer matches are clustered. Giving in the EPL means playing a nice friendly, non aggressive draw (maybe 0-0). We had 5 draws in 9 EPL matches, 4 draws being 0-0 and one being 1-1. Top table, top scoring Man U and Man City both played nice in 0-0 draws, where form meant nothing, as when teams give up league points to win cup matches during congested fixtures.
Happy New Year to all as we check out 11 more EPL matches. Ray Stefani
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#5326
5th January 2018, 04:47 PM
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EPL Round 23
I have to agree with Pep Guardiola that the congested fixtures from late November through the New Year are tough on all the players. They finally do get a break. The next matches are to be played 13-15 January.
Good luck with Round 23 and have a great 2018. (I hope I have written 2018 on all my cheques.) Ray Stefani
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#5327
16th January 2018, 10:54 AM
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EPL Round 24
The teams finally got some rest. I got tired just tabulating how many matches they have played lately.
Good luck with round 24. Ray Stefani
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#5328
23rd January 2018, 05:40 PM
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EPL Round 25
The teams are getting so time to recover efore the next round,, then they will play two matches close together. Last week, my favourites won 6 of the 7 games that were not drawn.
Good luck with week 25. Ray Stefani
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#5329
1st February 2018, 05:33 PM
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EPL Round 26
Last week I suggested that finally the EPL teams would have more than a week to recover before Round 25, with Round 26 following closely. I hadn’t noticed that there were FA Cup matches over the weekend just ended; so actually, the flurry of fixtures continued. Arsenal won a tough 2-1 FA Cup match over Chelsea during the weekend and then both teams tanked their midweek EPL matches. Swansea beat Arsenal 3-1 and Chelsea lost 0-3 to Bournemouth. Bournemouth supporters cashed 10.00 payoffs, which gives you an idea of how outlandish it was for Chelsea to lose at all, let alone by 3 goals.
The trick would be to find a way to guess when a team is going to tank EPL matches due to focusing on Cup matches, and then support the underdog. The word "guess" is the problem. If I had paid good money to watch a match when my team didn’t care, I would want my money back. Ray Stefani
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#5330
6th February 2018, 05:53 PM
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EPL Round 27
This will show you what a crazy league the EPL is. I decided to evaluate what ought to be a stupid betting strategy: bet on a draw in every game. Since the bookies discount their fair odds by 7-10% to make a profit, making myopic bets like that ought lose 7-10%, or so I thought. I still had the bookie odds for 8 of the last 9 rounds. If you bet one unit bet on each of the 80 matches, the 27 draws returned 100.65 units for a 26% profit. Crazy!
I looked at all 78 value bets I calculated for rounds 6 through 26, because I still had bookie draw odds for the 78 matches. If you bet one unit on each of the 78 matches, the 30 draws returned 102.71 units for a 32% profit. I think the reason there are more draws than the bookies expect is that both teams settle for a point every so often to rest, because they can’t play hard in all matches due to all those cup matches along with the 38 league matches. I’ll check that crazy scheme going forward. Good luck, Ray Stefani
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