We are all friends here in the Ozmium forums. We exchange information and suggestions about sports in general and betting in particular in a friendly manner. I am happy to volunteer my time to give predictions and suggest betting techniques as I have been doing for 45 years in general and for more than 10 years with Ozmium. If you or any one has a question, I am most happy to answer. However, an accusation like “disingenuous” has no place here and I will not tolerate insult, if my predictions are to continue in soccer.

I am happy to explain how my betting methods created a profit for EPL week 12. I am attaching the Kelly betting methods which I have attached to my Super Rugby predictions each week. The first section explains the Kelly method. The second section gives an example for Super Rugby while the third section contains a table for EPL week 12. First, I suggest comparing my fair odds with a bookmaker. I use TAB New Zealand for internet access. Obviously, if anyone has different bookie odds, betting would be different. First look for a game where the bookmaker odds for either team to win is more than mine. If not, there is no bet. As in the first section attached, do not bet if the bookie odds to win is less than 1.5 or more than 4.3. Next use the first section to apply the Kelly method which is derived to provide maximum exponential return on bankroll. I use ½ Kelly to keep the sum reasonable for a weekly league betting. I suggest not betting if the fraction of bankroll is less than 1.5%. If there would be more than 10% of bankroll for one game, I suggest limiting to 10%. I suggest keeping the weekly bet at no more than 25% of bankroll.

I then provide a table for EPL week 12, using ½ Kelly against TAB New Zealand. There was a value bet of 15 total supporting Tottenham which was lost. There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won with 50 and 59 respectively being multiplied by 1.9 and 2.1, respectively for a return of 95 and 124 respectively. The total bet was 224 and the total won was 270, for a 20% profit.

I wish good luck to all of you.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

About bets for EPL week 12.docx (13.0 KB, 338 views)

Woah Ray settle down. There was no insult, I also said you were brave and generous, and meant it, but you chose not to mention that.

I too have been making a living from gambling/ trading for a long time, so understand betting markets.

The only results I questioned were Burnley & Brighton, which you have repeated as wins in your reply.

"There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won" ???

Watford agreed paid way overs, but Burnley...lost 0-1 to Arsenal, and Brighton also lost 0-1 to Man Utd.
You had Burnley top pick, you priced them at 2.57 fav, and fair enough I understand how you can break even, or even profit if they draw, but they didn't, they lost.

That was all, nothing more, nothing less.

I gave you kudos for great results a few weeks before and am in no way criticising you for an ordinary week, simply pointing out claimed wins that were just not correct.

I think we also may have got our weeks mixed up.

You do have your weeks mixed up, as you note in a follow-up post. You had mentioned having a good week 11 (4-5 November) but a bad week 12 (18-20 November). You then listed your specific bets for week 12 and that you had 6 losses and 2 wins. I then gave a short summary of my take on week 12. You came back with the claim of "disingenuous". I gave you my specific betting table for week 12 when Burnley beat Swansea 2-0 (winning bet), Brighton drew with Stoke 2-2 (even bet) and Watford beat West Ham 2-0 (winning bet).

In you newest commentary, you mention week 13 (24-26 November) games about which you had said you sat out and about which I had made no comments. The scores for Burnley losing 0-1 to Arsenal and Brighton losing 0-1 to Man U are indeed for week 13. To go further, as I included in the attachment to my last response, I do not suggest a value bet for bookie odds greater than 4.30, so Burnley (5.30) and Brighton (16.00) were not value bets and therefore not loosing bets.

Let's move on.

Ray Stefani

Boy does time fly by: week 15 predictions are here.! It seems like it was just a few days ago when we were looking at the week 13 results and posting week 14 predictions. Actually, it was just a few days ago.

I am adding some more methodology for assigning bets. I had attached a section which explains what the predictions mean and a section explaining how to break even on a draw. I am adding a section about deciding which values bets to accept and deciding how to assign relative amounts to the various value bets using the Kelly method. Using those methods, week 14 came out quite well. There were five value bets. Bets supporting Burnley, Leicester and Everton were winners while bets supporting Brighton and West Brom broke even due to draws.

Good luck with week 15!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 15 pred.doc (52.0 KB, 316 views)

Hi Ray,
All your input has been very helpful for me
Big thanks for your time & effort

I greatly appreciate your thoughtfulness.

Good luck!

The betting trick which has you breaking even on a draw is really growing on me. For week 15, my favourites won all 7 matches that were not drawn. On one hand, the three drawn matches were value bets for Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom which normally would have been losses. On the other hand, you would have gotten your bet returned using the trick I gave you. There was one other value bet which was a winner thanks to Man U. All 9 values bets from weeks 13 And 14 resulted in either draws (breaking even) or wins.

I have attached all of my betting suggested methods to the predictions.

Good luck with week 16,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 16 pred.doc (53.0 KB, 324 views)

I should really write about “round 17” instead of “week 17”, because the EPL will be playing on 12-13 December (in the UK) and then play again this coming weekend after finishing their games on Sunday. There is no rest for soccer players or my computer.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 17 pred.doc (53.0 KB, 304 views)

In just over a week, 30 games will have been played and predicted. Here is the next installment of 10.

Good luck with round 18.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 18 pred.doc (53.0 KB, 295 views)