I think were learned that the official Rugby World rantings are pretty accurate at setting odds. I posted what the fair odds would be, using Rugby World's ratings. If we discounted the fair odds by 10% or so, we got almost exactly the bookmaker odds. There are two sides to that issue though. Maybe the Rugby World ratings do give good probabilities (I put the formula on the odds sheets I posted) OR maybe book makers use the same ratings to set odds that would balance the books if a lot of batters also yanked out their calculators and cranked away at the official Rugby World ratings.

Before the matches started the ratings suggested that NZ should win 6 (they won 5 after being upset by SA); SA should (and did) win 3 (with an upset win and upset loss); Australia should win 3 but won 2 after being upset by Argentina and Argentina should win none but won two in upsets. The higher rated teams won 75% of the matches, which is good prediction. NZ earned four bonuses.

It was definitely exciting.

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray. Was well worth the watch.

Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat

Ditto Ray

Thanks for the kind words guys. I will definitely crank up the good old computer and we'll be off to another fun season. I am looking forward to it!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Darn right. The tips will be coming your way soon!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby. SANZAR has changed the system few times recently, but, thankfully, the system in place for 2019 is the same as for 2018.


I change various parameters in my method based on results. We had a great year in 2018, so not much changed in my model .


I begin 2019 with the team ratings from the end of 2018. In case some teams have changed from last year, be cautious for the first three or four weeks as my system adjusts ratings.


One thing I love about Super Rugby is that they beat the heck out of each other for 80 minutes, shake hands and go out for a pint afterwards as friends. If only our politicians could do that!


Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Round 1.doc (52.0 KB, 445 views)

Cheers Ray

Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining

That will be a great game to watch. I like Sonny Bills' style.

Ray