Thanks to many of you for the kind words.

So far so good. My favourites have cooperated and won as expected in 79% of the matches so far, including five upset wins. The really huge rating swings due to those huge early season score differences have settled. The probabilities that I use to set odds have been pretty close so far. Let’s have a great rest-of-the season.

Good luck with week 5.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 5.doc (50.5 KB, 676 views)

Absolutely
Cheers Ray

Seven of my eight favourites won this week, bringing the season success rate to 81%. Of course, the only upset among my favourites was a lost value bet, blamed on the Brumbies. The Sharks did come through to cash a value bet for supporters, so we were basically even for Week 6. The predicted score margins were surprisingly accurate: just off by 5 points per game.

It looks like we will have a lot of one-sided games coming up in Week 6 (or some big upsets).

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 6.doc (50.5 KB, 696 views)

My favourites have been very cooperative. Fo rall 6 weeks, they have won 84% of the matches. For the last three weeks, they have won 93% of their matches. On the other hand, the bookie odds have been very close to mine so there have been few value bets. I have been focusing on money line bets.

You might look into points start bets. Suppose the Hurricanes are offered at -6.5 while I have them to win by 10. You could book Hurricanes -6.5 and have an edge of 3.5 points. Suppose the Reds are offered in a different game at +10.5 while I have their opponent to win by 6. You could book the Reds + 10.5 and have an edge of 4.5 points. I suggest looking for an edge of 3.5 points or more. The payoff is around 1.85 so if you pick in the right direction at least 60% of the time, you win at least .6*1.85 = 1.11, at least an 11% profit.

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 7.doc (50.5 KB, 686 views)

Again awesome tipping mate..have also been doing margin or tribet selections with your tips...going well

Cheers Ray

..super rugby competition to be cut from 18 to 15 teams for 2018
..two south african teams will go & one from australia

Five of my seven favourites won last week making 82% for the season. There was a head-to-head value-bet winner thanks to the Sunwolves last week.

My fair odds are getting so close to the bookies for head-to-head bets that I am looking around the room for a hidden camera. Last week I looked at points difference start value bets with at least a 2.5 point advantage giving or taking points. Three of four value bets cashed.

Thanks johnniebum for the kind words.

Jake mentions changes for 2018. There is less balance this year, so some teams obviously should go. I hate to see Australia losing one, so the South Africa conglomerate gets six.

Good luck with week 8!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 8.doc (50.5 KB, 549 views)

Ok, so there will be three conferences of 5 each in 2018. The “Australian Conference” will have four actual Australian teams plus the Sunwolves.

Think about travel. When each of the five New Zealand Conference teams plays its 4 away conference games, the games are all in NZ. When the four Australian teams play their four “conference” away games, one will be in Japan. Of course, the Sunwolves will have terminal jet lag, as now, so no wonder they are worst, but they are not going to be dropped. Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

I know it comes down to business, but there is something to be said to tradition too.

There is no “A” for Argentina or “J” for Japan in SANZAR. How about calling it SANZAJAR, which doubles for SANity iZ all AJAR. Works for me.

Ray Stefani