No not the SP just the fixed prices as then you know what prices you are getting.

I ran back a few days quickly looking at races where all horses under $30 could be dutched for < 90%. Using the lower available fixed odds. It won 25 out of 26 races. Profit on dutching to win $100 returned $311.05

So that's a 3.45 unit profit (311.05/90) and a 96% strike rate over the short time frame I looked.

It needs further investigation but its a promising start.



Ever heard of the fav long shot bias. Well the massive overs on betfair just bring this closer to remove the bias. For example a $100 horse on the tote should win 1% of races. It might be $400 on betfair. That's still only a difference of 0.75% chance difference. The horses real chances are more likely closer to 0.75% i9n reality then 1% due to the fav long shot bias.

The difference between a horse at $1.70 on the tote and $1.75 on betfair is 2.9%. That's a whole lot more then 0.75% value that your chasing in the long shots.

Work on percentages... not price.

Gotcha! Thanks for the reply UB, I'll check it out further. It will be interesting to see the results Stugots comes up with too.
Cheers RP

Morning UB. Is there a 'quick n dirty' way to get to the '<90%' mark for back testing purposes?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Ok, well not as bad as I expected with a 7.5% loss on t/o for 12 months to last Sunday.

If your not immune to a bit of filtering, the following produced a profit in 9 of 12 months, but not a lot of action with an avg of 2 bets per day.

BFSP $20-$999
Tab/BFSP ratio <1.0
Non maidens only
Tatts codes br cr mr nr sr vr
Distance >=1200 to <=1550
No starters >=9 <=12
Race starts average >=4
Favourite bf price <1min to jump >$3.50

GOOD WORK Stugots!!
To clarify, do the filter conditions that you detailed, result in the 7.5% loss, profit 9 in 12, or was that applicable to no filters BFSP>=$20?
Thanks mate, RP

Hi RP, the 7.5% loss was for the lot ~ 6400 races excluding maidens.

The filters produced a pot of 45%, a bit high for my liking but I don't think any of the filters are outrageously back fitting, so who knows.

A quote of mine from the Lay the Neural Outsiders thread with reference to Speedy & MG,"If I were you guys I'd let the systems die off, lock the formula in the same vault that the CocaCola recipe is held in. Just post annual results to us from your Swiss chalets. In years to come forumites will be trolling the net looking for these legendary systems....lol"

Stugots, how about we meet up in Zurich for a drink in 6 months time, when we go visit Speedy & MG in their chalet??...lol
have a great day, RP

might be a struggle RP as I think I will be still on the QE2 round the world cruise

Well 90% can only be determined on a race to race basis. Its 100/odds and making sure all those under 30 add up to less then 90. You don't get heaps of bets (about 8-10 a day in Aus).

I'll check todays figures in the next 20mins.

7 from 8 today. Resulted in +20.01 on $100 dutch plan.