I'm bringing this old thread back up as I am looking for a system that one can lay which, therefore, will not effect any turnover charge markets (as lay bets don't effect those markets).

I stumbled upon this thread that I thought I would try out in real time but just with simulated bets at the moment.

If anyone can tell me (via their records) whether this is or isn't worth it before I get too heavily involved I would appreciate it.

I'm using the following:
Price range 1.90-5.00 (as that was the most profitable while reducing exposure)
Maiden races only
Must be Fav & placed 2nd or 3rd LS
Ignoring resumers

I'm laying using a $5 level stake (simulation only at this stage). Would a $30 liability be better?

Selections for today (one of these must be favourite and in the odds range 10 seconds before start time):

Course Race No Horse Nos
SCst
1- 1 3 8
2- 4
3- 3 4 7 11

Albury
1- 8
2- 4 7 8
3- 3 13 14

Bendigo
1- 6 7
2- 4 9
3- 2 7 11
4- 2 5 9 11

Murray Bridge
3- 6
4- 2 6 8 9

Bunbury
2- 9
3- 1 10
4- 12
5- 1

Wangaratta
1- 1
2- 10 11 14
3- 6

Devonport
1- 6
4- 3 7 10

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

TO
I ran 12 months of Betfair results. Laying the fav only, moving rocks around the paddock. Laying the top two a negative. Laying the top three a negative.
Laying all =<$20 a bigger negative. Laying the field a positive, but be prepared for one losing week in four and four losing months. This was every race. I know that there are races in there that would not pay ever and a culling exercise could straighten some of the bumps.

Thanks beton. This was for the fav in the current betting race IF it had ran 2nd or 3rd at it's previous start with no resumers?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

If laying all selections < $20 is a big loser and laying the field is positive, then wouldn't you just lay everything over $20 and it would be a bigger positive?

And back everything under $20 ?

This may be so and a good deduction. Unfortunately I have not tested this so I can't post a comment. I was laying all between $3 and $30 and was positive although very erratic. I am now taking lessons in excel to be able to test this myself. The answer may be in laying $10 plus. I ran it on maidens only which produced a dismal result so culling the maidens may be worth the effort. I also ran it on the trots and although the results were very good they need to be rerun because some of the results were out of kilter with reality. Time has been an issue and thanks to stuggots for helping me to run these results.

Hi beton. Any answer to the above? Were your results for all faves in maiden races or for the criteria of this "system"?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

The test was on all faves - all races. I tested for the whole field at $100 liability. I also tested the 1st fav at -$154. the top 2 fav at -$1305. the top 3 fav at -$1515 and those =<$20 at +$103. I then tested the maidens by themselves for +$2080. The maidens had 26 losing weeks.

Okay thanks beton.

So far today there have been 5 qualifying races for 0 winners. There are 4 races to come at Bunbury which will obviously make or break today's effort.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Well the system got off to a great start with 5 favs falling over for us but two favs got up at Bunbury reducing the winnings to next to nothing.

Full Market Name Selection Bet Type Amount Price Profit And Loss
13:40 R2 1170m Mdn\14. Valdori 14. Valdori Lay 5 3.55 5
14:15 R3 1400m Mdn\6. Learning Centre 6. Learning Centre Lay 5 4.5 5
14:35 R4 1600m Mdn\11. Demonstrable 11. Demonstrable Lay 5 3 5
14:55 R4 1606m Mdn\2. Grigio Now 2. Grigio Now Lay 5 4.9 5
15:11 R4 1350m Mdn\7. Da Nyet 7. Da Nyet Lay 5 3.05 5
16:40 R3 1410m 3yo\1. Cougar Nights 1. Cougar Nights Lay 5 2.3 -6.5
18:10 R5 1410m Mdn\1. Whatever Trevor 1. Whatever Trevor Lay 5 3.9 -14.5

Total for $5 lay bets +2.38 Including Commission
5 winning lays & 2 losing lays

Monday picks if they start fav and if in the odds range:

Toowoomba
1- 1 2

Warrnambool
3- 2
4- 3
5- 4

Coonamble
1- 5 9 11 13

Geraldton
1- 1 8
2- 3 4 10 12

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Hi Beton, I too have looked at these results. The culling required is extensive, you need to remove races that don't have SP betting. The odds shown for non SP races are some sort of weighted average and wouldn't be available to us. For example 13 Oct R3 Ararat, a non SP race :
Betfair database odds: 130 18 23 20 20 2.9
Back odds on day: 85 21 24 19 17 2.9
Lay odds on day: 770 21 90 20 36 2.92

I'm sure Stugots or someone could write a macro to cull it, matter of twisting their arm! I'm not sure what percentage of races in total would be non-SP, maybe 15 - 20%? it would be interesting to do the excercise. With my excel literacy I'd have to do every race manually and report back at Xmas time.
Cheers RP