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#21
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Sorry for the late reply SB didn't get a chance to check the thread until now, here goes :
Venue - Horse no. (Odds Range) BR4 - 2 (3.04/5.42), 3 (5.17/9.09) BR6 - 1 (3.09/5.49), 4 (4.83/8.60) BR7 - 2 (3.05/5.43), 5 (5.25/9.34) BR8 - 4 (3.84/6.83), 10 (4.98/8.86) SR4 - 2 (4.47/7.94), 1 (5.32/9.47) SR5 - 7 (3.76/6.69), 2 (4.71/8.37) SR6 - 8 (5.39/9.59), 4 (5.49/9.76) SR7 - 1 (3.96/7.04), 3 (6.09/10.83) VR5 - 11 (4.75/8.44), 6 (5.13/9.12) VR6 - 9 (5.10/9.06), 11 (6.44/11.45) AR7 - 4 (4.44/7.91), 7 (6.08/10.80) PR1 - 6 (4.12/7.33), 1 (4.66/8.29) PR5 - 12 (4.35/7.73), 6 (5.95/10.59) PR6 - 1 (4.17/7.41), 3 (5.10/9.08) PR7 - 2 (6.19/11.01), 8 (6.59/11.73) Obviously any scratchings etc will effect the above. |
#22
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All set. I'll send you the xls tonight.
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#23
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Greatly appreciated SB, i'll go back through race by race tonight as well and place the race data into my recording spreadsheet.
I'm at a bit of a crossroads as to if I should refine the selection criteria further or leave as is. The reason being is that currently the ratings/overlays approach is having a bet in 1 of every 2 races rated meaning its having quite a lot of action. Is more/less action a good or bad thing? Interested in the comments of others too, I guess its not necessarily a bad thing providing your Max drawdown is at a comfortable level. I suppose also comes back to the question what are you more comfortable with: 500 selections over a month 30% SR 20% POT or 500 selections over 2 years 30% SR 20% POT EDIT: Maybe rather than any horse filtering I need to look at any additional race filtering I can use to improve the results as my horse filtering should all be taken care of in the ratings |
#24
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I used to be a disciple of selective betting but not now. If you are making a profit go for it and when you have considerable data you may be able to identify weaknesses and prune a little.
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#25
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Pretty poor day for the ratings from what I can tell glancing at the results quickly, will know more once i'm home and can look at them properly.
Also from what I could tell didn't seem many of the selections fell within the odds parameters besides a few. |
#26
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SB or Others, i'm interested in your thoughts on something.
Today I was fiddling with the data i've collected thus far looking for a way to profitably lay my lowest raters. After some mucking around and looking at various stats etc I found something that made sense and looked profitable. Now, so far i've used an overlay range method to make my top raters profitable, but i thought to myself hangon why not just only play my top raters when my bottom raters throw up a lay opportunity. I won't post the stats etc as i'm still looking into it, but does anyone else take this approach or has tried this approach of only backing horses when a profitable lay system you have, has a play in a race. The reason I ask is doesn't it basically turn say a 10 horse field into a 9 or 8 horse field for your backing selections? Which you can possibly narrow down further and basically gives you greater opportunity for winners? I could be way off track with this but it makes logical sense to me providing you have a very good lay system to base it off to begin with. Thoughts? |
#27
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I might have to phone a friend on that one, JB. If the lay that you identify is a short price backing your toppie or overlay probably makes sense to me.
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