Awwwww Shucks LG, you make-a-me blush!

Today's picks are below, I will include the Tatts fixed price in () and early overs will be in bold.

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Gosford
3 / 4 $5.7 (6), 5 $5 (3.4)
4 / 1 $5.5 (7), 8 $4.8 (3.5)
6 / 8 $4.6 (2.9)

Sale
5 / 7 $2.8 (no fixed)
6 / 2 $3.9, 3 $5 (no fixed)

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So currently there are only two 'overs' at Gosford in races 3 and 4.

The DS market ran riot on a few races, for instance Sale race 5, where all other horses except the 7 were $101.

Interesting stuff.......

See the full workout for races below:
Sale
W2: 5-2 8, 3 7, 4 5.5, 5 8, 6 9, 7 3.5, 9 9
NR: 6, 4.6, 7, 8.5, 12, 3.8, 19
DS: 1.2 all others $101 / 7 $2.8

W2: 6-1 4.6, 2 4, 3 5.5, 4 6, 6 6, 8 9
NR: 3.6, 4.4, 5.5, 7, 8.5, 13
DS: 101, 3.3, 4.2, 17, 41, 13 / 2 $3.9, 3 $5

Gosford
W2: 3-2 5, 3 7.5, 4 4.6, 5 3.5, 6 7.5, 7 5, 8 7.5
NR: 17, 6, 6, 5, 10, 12, 4.4
DS: 31, 15, 6.5, 6.5, 6, 15, 12 / 4 $5.7, 5 $5

W2: 4-1 8, 2 6, 3 9, 4 7, 5 4, 8 3.5, 9 7
NR: 3.5, 5.5, 5, 13, 10, 8.5, 26
DS: 5, 12, 9, 301, 9, 2.9, 101 / 1 $5.5, 8 $4.8

W2: 6-1 3.5, 2 4.5, 8 3
NR: 5, 3.8 7
DS: 12, 10, 3.9 / 8 $4.6

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Gosford
3 / 4 $5.7 (6), 5 $5 (3.4)
4 / 1 $5.5 (7), 8 $4.8 (3.5)
6 / 8 $4.6 (2.9)

Sale
5 / 7 $2.8 (2.1)
6 / 2 $3.9 (2.1), 3 $5 (4.5)

Still only the two value runners using fixed odds.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Another interesting day for the selections. No winners for the overlays but another profit on the place with one winner from the two selections for a 37.5% POT.

The underlays fought back with 2 winners from 6 for a .48 profit for the win 1 unit loss if laying the selections. The Lays are still in profit.

Overlays
Win: Out 2 In 0 P/L -2 SR 0%
Place: Out 2 In 2.7 P/L + .7 SR 50% POT 37.5%

Underlays
Win: Out 6 In 6.58 P/L + .58 SR 33% POT 9.6%
Lay: Out 6 In 4.94 PL - 1.06 POT -17.6%

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Hi y'all,

I'm flat-chat today so may not get a chance to post selections until around 3pm and even then there's no guarantee.

The races I would select to use the method today on are:

Wyong 6,7
Warrnambool 6
Rocky 4,5

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The main criteria is that the there are no horses under $7 scratched in the ************** market. This ensures it doesn't change the market too much.

*Also ensure there are only two first-uppers after scratchings - This could be an issue with Wyong race 6 and Warrnambool race 6.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Wyong
6-1 5.2 (3.8) 2 $5.6 (4.6), 3 $5.2 (3.2)
7-8 $6 (8)

Warrnambool
6-2 $5.4, 3 $4.2

Rocky
4-3 $5.4, 4 $3.5, 7 $4
5-2 $3.6

Interesting in Wyong race 7, number 8 just scraped in the $6 mark due to rounding down and is an overlay. It would suggest an open race, however no. 9 is the $3 favourite at the moment and it's prices were $4, $18 & $4.8.

There are no other prices available on fixed at the moment.

Have a lovely Thursday afternoon.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Wow I've had a massive day! Just off to sleep now. I'm preparing for my good friend's wedding this weekend so I may go a bit quiet.

A 3 point profit today if you only backed the overs for the place and layed the unders for the win. A short-neck was the difference at Rocky in race 4 between having a profit on win selections and now facing a hefty deficit.

More research required.

Schweet dreams.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Good Afternoon,

Races at Orange today and Cranbourne tonight. The only fixed available at the minute is Orange race 6, where there are two overs selections. The best strategy seems to be to back them for the place, however we must be getting close to a winner with the overs. Surely!!!!.........

Orange
4-1 $4.4
6-3 $3.8 ($5), 5 $6 ($7)
7-2 $6, 5 $4

Cranbourne
5-2 $5.6, 3 $4
-----------------------------
Full Workout

Orange
4-1 2.35, 2 4, 4 6, 5 5.5, 6 5.5, 7 8.5
4.4 6 7.5 41 11 13
6.5 9 6.5 11 6 6.5 / 1 $4.4

6-1 4.2, 2 3, 3 5, 4 8, 5 7
11, 5.5 3.8 11 8
11 26 2.8 14 3.4 / 3 $3.8 (5), 5 $6 (7)

7-2 6, 4 8.5, 5 2.5, 8 7.5, 9 8.5, 11 8.5, 12 7.5
10 6 5 12 31 16 8.5
3.2 13 4.8 8 21 21 41 / 2 $6, 5 $4

Cranbourne
5-1 4, 2 2.8, 3 3.5, 5 9, 6 7.5, 8 6
14 5.5 4.4 20 7 8
11 9 4.6 5 8 9 / 2 $5.6, 3 $4

Have a mighty fine day!!

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

Rosehill 4,7
4-1 6.5, 3 6.5, 4 7.5, 5 9.5, 6 5, 7 8, 8 4.6, 9 11
8 5.5 17 26 14 11 4.6 4.6
5 10 91 16 5.5 26 16 4.8
// 1 $6.4 (7), 3 $7.2 (7), 6 $8 (5), 8 $8.4 (4.6)??, 9 $6.8 (11)

7-1 4.8, 6 8, 7 7, 8 7, 10 11, 11 6.5
8.5 18 15 12 7 41
201 17 81 51 4.2 201 / 10 $7.4 (11)


Moonee Valley 6,7,8
6-2 5, 3 9, 13 4.2, 15 9, 16 8
5.5 31 13 41 51
26 3.7 31 51 201 / 1 $12 (26)

7-1 15 3 8, 4 8.5, 5 4.6, 6 4.6, 9 5
4 11 21 12 6.5 9
201 101 51 6 4 4 / 5 $7.4 (4.6), 6 $5 (4.4), 9 $6 (4.8)

8-1 7.5, 4 7, 10 7, 11 8, 12 9
9 5.5 14 12 17
12 19 12 101 61 / 1 $9.5 (7.5), 4 $10.5 (7.5)

Eagle F 5,6
5-3 8, 5 6.5, 6 2, 19 7.5
9 6 7.5 401
3.2 51 3.6 301 / 3 $6.6 (8), 6 $4.2 (1.9)

6-2 5.5, 5 9, 7 8, 13 8
51 4.8 9.5 41
101 1.45 31 101 / 5 $5 (8.5)

Ascot
8-1 9, 5 2.35, 7 5, 9 5, 10 6.5
6 16 19 7 4.6
6 3.1 12 9 7.5 / 1 $7, 5 $7, 9 $7, 10 $6.2

9-1 3.5, 2 7.5, 4 11, 11 8.5, 14 6
9.5 4.6 21 14 17
4.8 4.8 61 41 41 / 1 $5.8, 2 $5.6

Sorry I didn't have time to post this morning.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty

So many numbers! What does it all mean??

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Without getting too philosophical LG, I stretched the minimum price out today as the main selection races had prices bigger than $6.

Taking Rosehill Race 7 as an example:

7-1 4.8, 6 8, 7 7, 8 7, 10 11, 11 6.5
8.5 18 15 12 7 41
201 17 81 51 4.2 201 / 10 $7.4 (11)

The first line is the horse number followed by the ************** price, so:
7-1 4.8 means in race 7, horse number 1 was $4.8 on **************. Unfortunately the two lines below the first ************** line do not format well but they are the Neaural price on the second line and the Don Scott price on the third line of prices.

Number 10 ended up having a price of $7.4 (10+7+4.2/3 =7.4)

Basically I start with all horses under $10 on ************** in selected races, then add their Neural price and Don Scott price and divide the total by 3 to get a final price. The number in () is the TAB fixed price at the time.

Hope my explanation is clear, apologies if it's not, I'm a wee bit knackered.

__________________
The Schmile

"I buy when other people are selling.”
― J. Paul Getty