#11
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![]() The second up figures make a mockery of one of racings "truisms".
Fascinating figures all round. |
#12
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![]() It certainly surprised me Speedy, Those charts basically show that running every 2 weeks is good for fitness but you don't necessarily have to be 2-3 races into your prep, as long as you've had 1 recent start your good to go.
I was also really surprised that a horses track and distance W% had little bearing on its ability to win. To me it just shows that conditions have a huge bearing on the outcome of a race but I think most here know that swimmers win on wet and others like it firm and they don't generally mix between the two. Anyway sorry for getting off topic of your testing michael, I hope the Tatts Rating chart helps somewhat. |
#13
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![]() Thanks for your suggestions.
However at the moment I'll keep it simple even though I'll keep in mind the suggestions. The only filter I'll currently apply is that the maximum number of runners per qualifying race is 11. Today's races and selections are: Townsville 2/1, 3 3/1, 3 4/4, 5, 9 5/6, 9 Seymour 4/3, 6, 7 5/1, 5 7/9, 10, 11 8/1, 3 Taree 1/1, 8 4/1, 4 7/4 I'll be betting them to Win and box quinellas. Win outlay is $24. Quinella outlay is $15. |
#14
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![]() So far the races with 3 or more chances dont seem to do as well as races with 2 or less chances .But very good so far given all chances are still in.
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#15
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![]() Ianian, you're right. Today there were 3 races of 3 selections, for an outlay of $9 the return was only $2.00, and yesterday there were 13 selections for a return of $10.80. It's still too early to tell but it's something for me to look at.
Today there were 24 selections for a NSWTAB return of $23.50 for a loss of $0.50, but on Betfair S.P the return was (including their commission) $26.45 for a profit of $2.45 or a 10% POT. The method struck 7 winners from the 11 races, and one of the selections ran second in three of them. And there were 3 quinellas for a loss of $0.50. Even though it was a losing day it was not a damaging one. I think my brain scan has done something worrying to my brain because I made an appointment with my specialist for next Tuesday without at the time realising it is probably the most important day of racing. |
#16
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![]() That is a catastrophe MG,
__________________
Jose'. |
#17
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![]() Michael
I'm sure you would agree that it would be hard to make a profit backing 3 or 4 fairly short priced horses for the win. However, quinellas and exactas may stand a chance of making a profit. I'm keeping a record of various permutations of exactas and will post the results when you have posted more selections. So far it is very encouraging in the 3/4 seln races. |
#18
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![]() SpeedyBen, yes, it's difficult to show a Win profit from short priced horses, but hopefully this method will ultimately be profitable due to Betfair's superior prices even though I'm currently betting with the TAB.
I will also continue betting quinellas, and again hope they will be successful but am not too confident because of the TAB's high take-out. I'ts encouraging to know you are doing well with quinellas/exactas using small combinations as I am currently doing, and will be very interested to learn of your results. Last edited by michaelg : 31st October 2012 at 06:27 AM. |
#19
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![]() Today's selections are (if there are more than 50% selections in a race it becomes a no-race).
Ascot 2/8, 9 Eagle Farm 1/3, 6 3/2, 6 4/2,11 5/1, 3 6/10 7/1, 4, 6 Kembla 2/2, 3, 4 3/5, 7 4/10 5/1, 2, 6 6/2, 10, 13 Bendigo 1/3 2/8 3/3 4/11, 12 5/2 7/3, 10, 13 9/5, 6, 10 Balaklava 1/2 2/3 4/3 5/2 7/1, 3, 6 Launceston 4/5 6/1 7/1 Win outlay $50 Quinella Outlay $29 I'm checking the Win results of those races where there are 3-plus selections. Last edited by michaelg : 31st October 2012 at 11:48 AM. |
#20
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![]() Kembla scr 5.1
Kembla Race no 6 SHOULD BE RACE NO 7 ?? |
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