OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Can Excluding Over-Bet Factors Make a Difference?

8th August 2013, 07:43 AM

Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline

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Join Date: Mar 2012

Posts: 1,227

Quote:

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

You need to find out what everyone else is doing and go the opposite direction.

OR Find out what makes everyone else go in the opposite direction and stay put?*

One thing I have learnt about price of late is that are many versions of price to consider, other than SP. e.g. if one gets on early enough onn a fixed basis, LOT can be turned into POT and a low return can become acceptable or even 'considerable'

LG

*Assumption being that this doesn't affect a horse's true chances of winning too much!

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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 8th August 2013 at 07:49 AM.

8th August 2013, 08:42 AM

darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline

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Join Date: Nov 1999

Posts: 4,330

Eliminating under $3 on wet tracks made a major difference for me.

8th August 2013, 11:33 AM

Magister Ludi Magister Ludi is offline

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Join Date: Jul 2013

Posts: 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

One thing I have learnt about price of late is that are many versions of price to consider, other than SP. e.g. if one gets on early enough onn a fixed basis, LOT can be turned into POT and a low return can become acceptable or even 'considerable'

LG

Astute observation, milord. Overlays have a way of doing just that!

8th August 2013, 12:54 PM

beton

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 589

Quote:

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Racetrack betting markets are like any other financial market. The price of a horse reflects all of the hopes, fears, dreams, WAG's, SWAG's, careful analysis, and silly guesses of all of the bettors on that horse and is reflected in the horse's price. The more popular metrics are more thoroughly incorporated into that price and provide no overlay opportunity. You need to find out what everyone else is doing and go the opposite direction.

Thanks Magister Ludi. My quest was that you proceed and nominate some of these obscure metrics to ponder.

9th August 2013, 02:21 AM

Magister Ludi Magister Ludi is offline

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Posts: 13

Quote:

Originally Posted by beton

Thanks Magister Ludi. My quest was that you proceed and nominate some of these obscure metrics to ponder.

One very useful metric is a quantitative measurement of race entropy.

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