Yeah good ideas - when I get time next day or two I'll re-run with that stipulation, post the results here.

Crash - you'd like it because it uses ratings, ie it's an automated handicapping program, using the ratings, you then take the top pick and if it passes a couple of "filter" rules, it's a bet. That's why there's heaps of bets at varying odds, every race is a possible bet. (check that, every race without any first starters in it)

Hi partypooper,

It's not the POT or the profit that is spectacular, you may have misunderstood me, it's the viability of the system continuing.

I've never seen profit made up from over 100 horses based on the average win dividend using TAB prices over 2 years.

That's not to say that other entities may not have higher POT or $$$ profit.

I personally would put serious money on these selections outlined in the thread.

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Hi Duritz,

I was not aware that it was your system, I thought it was something you came across in cyberspace or from a mag.

No offence intended, it did seem too good to be true, but if you are using it, then you don't need me looking over your shoulder

Perhaps you remember when we were best mates and went to school together and I let you stay in my high rise apartment last week?



Perhaps not

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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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I am going to start backing it, that'll be the acid test.

Strange thing is, I'm not even excited about it, I guess b/c I need to see it work when my money is on it for it to be real in my mind.

I'll keep you posted.

Hi Duritz,

You say it's not backfitted but:
Was there a backfitting element involved when you developed the handicapping system? Like did you try 1 length = 0.5Kg, no that doesn't work how about 1 length = 0.4Kg, etc until it showed good results? Or have you proved the handicapping part works on fresh data not used for development?
Assuming your ratings are backfitting free did you take the ratings over the two year period and then try different filters over the top of them until you came up with a nice profitable outcome. This of course would be backfitting too.

I ask these questions not to try to shoot you down or anything of the sort and I hope your answers to both of them are in the negative. Just injecting an air of caution into the ebullient atmosphere your results have engendered lest you be carried away on the tide of expectation into perdition, depression and ultimate financial ruin.

Cheerfully yours,
KV

Kenny,

Dare not say it, but if Duritz can show a TAB profit on 5,500 selections in 2 years, and his profit is not even made up from 10 longshots, then his retrofitting or backfitting doesn't really matter.

When I mentioned backfitting, I thought the results were from some peddlar who may have "jimmied" the bets, not necessarily backfitted.

If Duritz has set rules and handicapping and has not left out any other horses, then he is on the ride of a lifetime.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi KV - the handicapping program has been improved over the last year or so as I have developed it, until it is where it is now. I suppose in a sense the handicapping program itself is "retro fitted" given that I have tested, changed etc as I've gone along, however it's not fitted with silly rules like "barrier 6-11" or anything, it just uses their ratings, and predicts what they'll rate today, and minuses for weight, jockey, barrier. So then it has its selections, using the top pick if it passes one simple rule then it's a bet.

The power isn't in the one simple rule, the power is in the handicapping program. On it's own, you can level stake the top pick and lose 2%, the rule pushes it into the profit.

Kenny I just love the above. You should set up a punter's minder service. You'll save the poor ************s thousands !!! :-)

Cheers, Crash

If it weren't for the perdition, depression and financial ruin I find myself in I'd do just that.