Hi Kumite,

I forgot to answer your other question about factors affecting a bet. The half Kelly equation takes care of how much overlay there is and not betting much on longshots. The numerator of the Kelly equation, Rf/Rb-1, is the amount of overlay, what you expect to win. If there is low overaly, that will suggest hardly any bet. You divide by Rb-1 which reduces bets on long shots (large Rb). I caution aganst Rb more than 4.35 anyway. Finally, you take half the result so as not to overbet and you scale down to 25% of your bankroll if you find a week with overlay bets titaling moe than 25% of your bakroll.

Good luck,
Ray

I wrote the numerator of the Kelly equation incorrectly in my last send. If Rb is the bookie decimal odds and Rf is my fair odds. The numerator of the Kelly equation should be Rb/Rf-1. If the bookie gives Rb = 2.2 and I have Rf = 2, then the numerator is 2.2/2 - 1 or 1.1 - 1 or 0.1. That means the expected overlay is 10%. The denominator for Kelly is Rb -1 which would be 2.2 - 1 or 1.1. Taking 1/2 Kelly you get 0.5 (0.1)/1.1 or 0.045. You bet 4.5% or your bankroll. The info with each week's predcitions gives the 1/2 Kelly formula and much more.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

thanks very much ray for all the additional feedback
softly, softly the first few rounds

pro12..h2h..ospreys to beat aironi

pro12..h2h..leinster to beat scarlets

pro12..h2h..multi..leinster to beat scarlets..ospreys to beat aironi

Ray

The website links in your weekly predictions are not working. Looking for your predictions on the UK EPL please?

Regards
Fatcat

..this multi was a winner

..this bet was a winner

..this multi was a winner