Wellington 30:25

pro12..h2h..ulster to beat dragons

pro12..h2h..cardiff blues to beat connacht

pro12..h2h..multi..cardiff blues to beat connacht..ulster to beat dragons

Aviva Premiership

Sale up against Worcester

Taking Sale h2h

Aviva Premiership

Bath up against Newcastle

Taking Bath h2h

6 Nations Week 2

Wales up against Scotland

Taking Wales h2h

Hello Everone.

Year two of the new three-conference system is about to start. Home advantage was a little lower last season with half the games being played in each team's country.

I start where last seaosn left off. My offensive and defensive ratings are from the end of last season. It takes about 4 weeks to reset ratings for this year's changes.

Bet very cautiously for the first four weeks.

I added a lot of info on how to bet with my predictions and some info about how my system works.
Good luck.
Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super 15 Week 1.doc (32.5 KB, 141 views)

hi ray thanks for your input
looking at your week1 attach, just checking am reading it right
Crusaders & Lions both predicted to win & both are currently overlay money line value bets (as you put it) as odds available easily exceed your predicted odds?
also is this the main factor for "good" h2h bets or should we also consider, for example, a min % win probability or something else?
thanks again

Hi Kumite

I checked TAB New Zealand odds. I do not see the Lions as an overlay bet. I have fair odds of 1.95 but TAB offers only 1.65. No value bet. I have the Cheetahs at 2.06 vs. TAB at 2.15, a mild value bet. Half Kelly suggests a bet of 1.9% of your bankroll. I have the Crusaders at 1.85 vs TAB at 2.10, a half Kelly 6.1% overlay bet. I have the Bulls at 1.65 vs TAB at 1.80, a half Kelly bet of 5.7%. That adds to 13.5% of your bankroll.

Remember, my odds are for ratings at the end of last season. They haven't been adjusted for player, manager or strategy changes. Be cautious for the first four weesk while the computer adjusts ratings.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani