Isn't a majority of the starting horses shorter than pre-market price due to the market percentage being less at jump?

I do not know the statistics but my first thoughts and from what I see is that most horses are shorter then Fridays paoer prices.

So I do not think that is the missing liunk.

From what I can see, the privateer did not post a set of rules. He posted a set of stats that formed the basis of his system. The theory behind his system was to get rid of the 80% of the rules that only gave 20% of the return and keep the 20% from where 80% of the money came from. He saw no value in the fav. One of his sayings was that the horse did not have to come first to win. Hence he found more value in place betting and he stressed many times 1 x 3 EW betting. The only two points that I can think of are 92% of winners come from shortening horses, or 92% of winners are under their true odds. The latter saying that if you backed any of the winners long term you would end up in the poorhouse. Hence the point of the stat was to say look for value other than the winner. And everybody looks at the winner even for a place. He is looking for a placegetter that could also win. He saw value in a proven placegetter with proven peak fitness in quality races with quality fields. Beton

Looks like a very succinct summary of privateer's principles.

Thanks Beton.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

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I think Beton has used the Paretto Principal well in his summing up of our research. He has cut back to the chase and summed up our research so far.

Anything else we can add will be a bonus.

The key might be in Beton's last sentence.

Star

I think most of his posts on Pareto Principle are gone from the forum, too old I guess.

He had 9 criteria, and yes he was right into place betting. He said he punted $600 x $1800 and had a 24% POT over time.

I edited my previous post just as you posted this. If I had seen this before I did my post I still would have hit the send button.

Unless someone comes up with another hypothesis it looks like Privateer was a place better looking for an edge rather then a win better looking for a saver.

Interesting different approach.

That argument plainly doesn't make sense at all.
I'm with Vortech.

Probably bought himself an island paradise and is there now drinking coconut shell martinis being entertained by grass skirt clad hula girls.

Moeee

I thought I was agreeing with Vortech too ?