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#102
7th July 2012, 11:06 PM
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Evening Beton,
I made the suggestion because someone here recently said he remembered a poster had done some research a while back which indicated that at least 85% of winners had opened shorter than pre-post. But he couldn't remember who. As a consequence of garyf's pre-post thread, I have been following opening prices in selected races for all runners(not just top A.A.P.), and have noted that there are often many runners which open shorter than pre-post i.e. not just the Fav, 2nd Fav, 3rd etc. This might also help to explain why such a high multiple of all winners open shorter, just as with Top 6-8-10 Tab No.'s etc? LG
__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 7th July 2012 at 11:11 PM. 
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#103
8th July 2012, 12:15 AM
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I found this from privateer in response to Gary f comments
Maybe a tipsters poll from a paper, If only betting on a Saturday that, Would be freely available on that day This was privateers response to that same question Briefly...my advice is to totally forget racing "tipsters". Generally speaking, they all tip favourites and are in competition amongst themselves. Take Bart Sinclair in Brisbane. His 3 "best bets" are mostly the 3 shortest priced faves on the program! How hard is that? Try this, use any paper and follow the tipsters for 1 month. At the same time YOU select your tips as well. Total them up at the end of the month and I'll bet you are not last! They do not have any more of an idea than the average punter, if they did, they wouldn't be giving away their tips free in a newspaper!
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#104
8th July 2012, 12:17 AM
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This Paretto thread is getting interesting. Looks like our Mr Privateer spoke in riddles.
I have no more clues, so will take a back seat. I guess it is now up to you old timers now. Thanks Researcher for adding to the thread, maybe others can think of other things as well. Star.
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#105
8th July 2012, 12:27 AM
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Quote:
Maybe that was it, that's one we can get rid of, Although i must admit i haven't read any of his threads as yet. Was just a guess, good luck to those trying to find what it was. Cheers.
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#106
8th July 2012, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Mind you, if you run it throguh a database it comes up as a loss, but it's pretty hard to do as I believe he was very selective in what races he bet on. He also used trackwork extensively !?
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#107
8th July 2012, 02:18 PM
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Quote Privateer "If deadly serious and you consider fitness to bea prime factor you then need to track a horse from the beginning of a campaignvia trackwork and barrier trials. Of course you are limited somewhat by theamount of information available but there is still plenty to occupy yourselfwith.
There are a few little clues (which I do not intend to share) that can bepicked up by analysing trackwork times and barrier trial results."
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#108
8th July 2012, 02:22 PM
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Maybe the 92% doesn't relate to opening shorter than pre-post.
Quote Privateer "The prices are PRE POST Friday newspaper prices- come raceday after blowing out, I've had plenty of $20, $30 and the oddlonger winner plus placegetters paying $5, $6 $7+..." Quote Privateer "I'll also say now that I don't worry about dayssince last run. Some of my better priced divvies have been from 1st uppers."
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#109
8th July 2012, 04:08 PM
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For mine 92% of winners are shorter than thier pre-post price. This is a place picking system, any winners are bonuses. He is not backing favorites at >$4 nor is he looking at the second fav in a two horse race. He is backing proven place getters that are proven fit, at better odds.
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#110
8th July 2012, 04:22 PM
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So, trackwork seems to be the key?
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