Useless Bettor's site gives the top ranked win percent runner a strike rate of 13.5%. Is this a reliable? I agrree with most other stats but this one bothers me.

Maiden races may affect the results?

To be honest top rank in almost anything should be around 20%+ if you can't get that you are in trouble, this all depends on the price.

__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out." --moeee
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come across that plenty of times, unless i've misunderstood the query not sure what the issue is?

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"Now let me get this straight - Whatever I do don't bet this horse?"

This data is a little old but should be reasonably close.

W%

1st=19.3
2nd=15.2.
3rd=12.9
4th=10.2
5th=9.4.

Around 67% for the top 1-2-3-4-5.

Have no idea why U.B.S data is different,
There would be a reason for it for sure.

When he sees this he will let us know i imagine.

Cheers.
Gary.f.

Garyf has quoted Malcolm Knowles results and I have found them fairly reliable over a number of years but they only go to 5th ranking. They more or less agree with Uselessbettor except for top ranked win % which is puzzling. (I am a staunch believer in place %.)

I get

Sel'n 126,061
Win 24,480
S/R 19.42%
LOT 16.43%

So Barny's data is almost identical for the top rated win %,
That i had from Malcoms data which is several years old.

This then is the confirmation you need probably spanning,
Over 10 years>

Cheers.
Gary.

So if Win % is combined with Weight i.e 55 KG + (50.6 % of winners from 36.5 % of runners) one would have the basics of a good system?
Cheers
darky

There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 34879 selections for the System
There were 8992 races for the System
There were 4332 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 12.42%
There were $31423.98 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-3455.02 or a percentage profit/loss of -9.91%

Test Another System
The Rules used were : winSrRank = 1



But use Career Wins >= 1 otherwise you get all the maidens included and that pulls down the percentage.



There were 100159 horse form lines in the database at this point in time. We update when we get time.There were 6930 selections for the System
There were 6116 races for the System
There were 1455 Winners for the System for a strike rate of 21%
There were $6872.73 returned for WIN (after 5% commission) which means a Profit or loss of $-57.27 or a percentage profit/loss of -0.83%

Test Another System
The Rules used were : careerWins >= 1 and winSrRank = 1



HOpe that helps out to explain the results.