#31
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![]() I meant our races only!
Would it be profitable to place lay bets at say roughly half SP? |
#32
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![]() Our races, half SP - no way, sorry.
Over time the shorter you lay below the pre off Betfair price, the more it's exactly breakeven (before the commission demons). I have seen quite a few 1.20 and shorter get rolled, but it's the eye that catches them. I'm sure some days it's profitable, but not in the longrun. If a horse is at evens and you lay it at $1.50, you're going to cop a lot of winners - too many to the ratio of losers. If you know something else, like the horse always breaks first or is a leader, then you'd have an extra edge. This is where intense form study comes in handy. But for mine, if the horse is trading at $2.00 on Betfair and is $1.90 with the bookies, my lays go in at $1.90 and $1.85. The only exception is if I know a leader has a bad habit of leading and getting swallowed up late, then I dabble in the $1.20 to $1.05 range. But that area is just a bit of interest to keep things exciting. If someone wanted to have a go at the longer priced horses, but still in the market, say the bookies have it at $4.50 and betfair have it at $5.50, I'd recommend laying at no shorter than $5.00. But the shorties is where the profit is at, horse is sittiing just behind the bolter and second fave ready to pounce, they round the home turn, horse trades at $1.90 and $1.85 as the callers says "he's cantering behind the leaders and pulls out to make his run" only it's a long straight and he runs out of steam or gets blocked and runs a length second. That's how I get matched usually.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 405,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 29th May 2009 at 02:46 PM. |
#33
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![]() Having said all that, I'd look for tracks and days where the backmarkers are flying home and try the $1.02 $1.05 or $1.10's.
But if you do it every race, you'll have some very bad days.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 405,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#34
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![]() This is what last night looked like for me laying:
$1.90 LOST $1.57 LOST $1.80 WON $1.62 LOST $1.40 LOST $1.50 LOST $1.91 LOST $1.67 WON $1.80 WON $1.62 WON $1.80 WON Outlay 11 units Profit 2.31 units 21% POT laying (before commission)
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 405,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
#35
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![]() The Royal Routine System was included in a publication titled "The Secrets of Turf Success" written by Jack O'Brien but as Party said you can not win by working to a 120% to 130% bookie or tote market. Even a 100% market would be challanging and you would end up taking odds on backing so many runners. If this system was successful there would not be a bookie left on the planet. Sadly I know of a person who was using this very system who had a 25% share in a very prosperous business things went great for a short time as he was winning heaps of money then the dreaded correction occured he had to sell his share of the business and even owed money to other people. So be wise.
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#36
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![]() Quote:
Hi Bhagwan, do you still have a copy of this book? I've been searching high and low for it as a gift for my father... If you still have it would you be interested in selling it or photocopying it for me? We have been looking for a copy of it for years now and have had absolutely no luck so if you do have it (or anyone else out there) I'd be very appreciative for a copy. Thanks |
#37
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![]() Quote:
Rgds |
#38
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![]() Quote:
Thanks Jack, will give you a call tomorrow after 7:30pm if that suits |
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