OK after watching a few more videos I am going to have to throw in signoff in my ones which are hard to split.

If I have to order them it is :

Lucia Valentina
Signoff
Protectionist
Admire Rakti

Lucia Valentina or Signoff probably win this depending on runs. Signoff I expect a little closer to the speed and Lucia Valentina may have some traffic to contend with.

If you look at Admire Rakti's form it could be anywhere but the stats probably rule him and protectionist off winning this.

Scarily that leaves me with both SpeedyBens tips and I have to agree they are the two most likely to win based on their age, weight, form and other historical pointers to the likely winner of the cup.

Box the field around them and have them both as standouts. If I am right that is 2*1*F + 2*F*1 + F*2*1 which is $126 for trifecta but this could be broken down a lot better as well by changing F*2*1 to only include real winning chances so lets try this tomorrow :

2*1*F + 2*F*1 +(my 9 other chances)*2*1 = 42+42+18 = $102.