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Old 11th January 2013, 06:23 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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APOLOGY, APOLOGY, APOLOGY

I was having a look at what would have happened if I had considered races <8 starters and I found out that I had used the wrong figures for Mornington on New Years Day. I had in fact used Morphettville figures!

The results up to and including yesterday (10th January) for fields >= 8 starters are:-

1st fav 64 bets 25 wins S/R 39.1% bank $73.30
2nd fav 64 bets 11 wins S/R 17.2% bank $66.10
3rd fav 63 bets 10 wins S/R 15.9% bank 59.50

Total bets 191 bank $198.90 so I am ahead ($7.90) of schedule!

If I include ALL races results are:-

1st fav 94 bets 29 wins S/R 30.9% bank $100.40
2nd fav 94 bets 20 bets S/R 21.3% bank $126.80
3rd fav 93 bets 17 wins S/R 18.3% bank $92.80

Total bets (All races) 281 bank $320.00 so I would be ahead ($39.00) of schedule as well.

Largest bets and longest losing runs for fields >= 8 starters are

1st fav = $6 - 5
2nd fav = $7 - 15
3rd fav = $18 - 15

Largest bets and longest losing runs for ALL fields are

1st fav = $59 - 7 (twice)
2nd fav = $49 - 16
3rd fav = $18 - 14

POT % (fields>=8) is 44.8%

POT % (All fields) is 35.7%
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