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![]() Okay so lets expand on the track condition as a possible filter using data to date.
Total results for all data to date up to and including Thurs 12/5: OPTION 1 (Courier Mail 3rd fav >= 6.00, 4th fav >= 8.00 and 5th fav >= 10.00) Return 756.10 Outlay 570.00 Profit $186.10 POT% 32.65% OPTION 2 (Courier Mail with races dropped where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav) Return 582.80 Outlay 320.00 Profit $262.80 POT% 82.13% OPTION 3 (same as Option 1 but using WEB2BET site) Return 121.00 Outlay 102.00 Profit $19.00 POT 19% Now If I separate these by track condition of HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD we get: HEAVY OPTION 1 Return 34.00 Outlay 47.00 Profit -$13.00 POT% -27.66% HEAVY OPTION 2 Return 34.00 Outlay 35.00 Profit -$1.00 POT% -2.86% HEAVY OPTION 3 Return - Outlay 12.00 Profit -$12.00 POT -100% SLOW OPTION 1 Return 152.20 Outlay 101.00 Profit $51.20 POT% 50.69% SLOW OPTION 2 Return 109.30 Outlay 57.00 Profit $52.30 POT% 91.75% SLOW OPTION 3 Return 62.40 Outlay 23.00 Profit $39.40 POT 171% DEAD OPTION 1 Return 389.00 Outlay 321.00 Profit $68.00 POT% 21.18% DEAD OPTION 2 Return 300.40 Outlay 172.00 Profit $128.40 POT% 74.65% DEAD OPTION 3 Return - Outlay 22.00 Profit -$22.00 POT -100% GOOD OPTION 1 Return 180.90 Outlay 101.00 Profit $79.90 POT% 79.11% GOOD OPTION 2 Return 139.10 Outlay 56.00 Profit $83.10 POT% 148.39% GOOD OPTION 3 Return 58.60 Outlay 45.00 Profit $13.60 POT 30% Sample data for OPTION 3 is only 3 days long so little can be gleaned at this stage from that data. Looking at this now, maybe there is something in dropping HEAVY tracks? I am hoping to get this sample data to a full month where I have checked at least 3 - 4 days per week to a sample data range of 20+ days of racing. Then hopefully I will be able to get a good idea of some effective filters to apply. Heck I may even open an online account and put a dollar or 2 down! |
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