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Old 24th February 2006, 08:08 AM
crash crash is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default Finding the 'set' Longshot !

Can't remember where I picked the rules up for this one. It's been hanging around in my files for some time. Works best during the week or the more minor races Sat. metro or country.

There are usually signposts in the past performances that indicate what the performance of a horse will be. Things like improved speed ratings, early foot, class drops and such seem to always put the crowd on a horse.

Shrewd stables often have their trainers do everything possible to cover up an upcoming big race. You have to use trickery to spot this.
Here is an easy way to spot the playing of smart money before the race.

1. List all horses that went off in last race at odds of $9 or over, and did not end in the money. Any win, place or 4th. will cause public action and destroy the plan.
2. Now go to the morning lines. Reduce the M/L odds by 50%. If it is $15 make it $7.50
3. Five minutes before post, bet any horse that has been bet down to the new lower odds.

With none of the obvious reasons for the betting, it is almost certain that the horse is being set. It may not win, all longshots don't, but you know the stable and connections are putting money where they think it has action.

Last edited by crash : 24th February 2006 at 08:13 AM.
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