Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 17th November 2013, 06:00 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 464
Question Will this fly?

I want to put my under employed bot to work on Oz races and I have been trying to find a method of doing so for some time. I think I have found it but I need a little info. My method revolves around backing favs where they are also top rated on a set of ratings which come into my possession daily. Over a lengthy period it has consistently hit at 40% and has shown a 2.5% pot using Vic tote divies. I'm confident that it will do better on BF and may even be quite lucrative.
My question is can anyone tell me how much better BF is than Vic tote on winners ( or just runners ) priced at 4.5 (approx) or lower?
__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 17th November 2013, 06:37 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,790
Wink

Speedy Ben, the Tab takes out about 16% commission on Win bets and generally a further few percentage points by shaving the dividend to comply with their $0.05 rule.

Hopefully this explains the "shaving" rule which has been referred to as Ned Kellyesque or tantamount to theft.

Good luck.

Last edited by michaelg : 17th November 2013 at 06:40 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 17th November 2013, 06:39 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedyBen
I want to put my under employed bot to work on Oz races and I have been trying to find a method of doing so for some time. I think I have found it but I need a little info. My method revolves around backing favs where they are also top rated on a set of ratings which come into my possession daily. Over a lengthy period it has consistently hit at 40% and has shown a 2.5% pot using Vic tote divies. I'm confident that it will do better on BF and may even be quite lucrative.
My question is can anyone tell me how much better BF is than Vic tote on winners ( or just runners ) priced at 4.5 (approx) or lower?
That's a large range.

Acording to my figures after commission betfair pays about 7% less then best tote returns in that range.

I don't keep the individual totes prices anymore so can't do a compare to that.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 17th November 2013, 06:42 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,517
Default

Compare that to $20+ winners and betfair pays 217% more

The value on betfair is on the longer selections. After commission the shorter selections just don't work out to be any better value.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 17th November 2013, 07:33 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

I concur with UB. BF is less below $5. I have some figures but the filing system has gone for a holiday.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 18th November 2013, 08:51 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 463
Default

UB or anyone else with the relevant database, are you able to estimate where the breakeven point is between best-tote and betfair then?

Does that mean one of the companies who offer Best Tote +5% would be the best option for basically anything under $5 ignoring the possibility of restrictions or bans?
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 18th November 2013, 09:52 AM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Breakeven BF / Best tote $8-10. Just the winners. 5-7% difference below and blows out exponentially to $92 Vs $52 on tote
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 18th November 2013, 10:14 AM
stugots stugots is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 879
Default

so pointy end back tote & lay bf, should be simple right
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 18th November 2013, 10:19 AM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by stugots
so pointy end back tote & lay bf, should be simple right
if only.
I will dig up the results of best tote vs top fluc. But I think off memory that it will confirm the same.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 18th November 2013, 11:36 AM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 464
Thumbs up

Thanks everybody for the input. The reason I picked on Vic tote was simply because it was easy to research using just one tote. Obviously, best tote will be better than a single tote so the method would have legs based on my research. I have been running it for the last 3 days and BF has outperformed Vic tote by one unit after (my) commission. Doesn't sound like much but that equates to about 120 units profit per annum.
The reason I wanted BF to succeed is that I can set the bot and let it run and I could increase my current discount level with a decent bet size.
__________________
Dear Lord
Please let me break even. I need the money.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 04:01 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655