Thanks chaps.. enormous respect for both of you, here. I feel sure that we will find answers to some of the questions thrown up today.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Thanks CP. This is a start. This means that he looked at the time rating and added extra weighting to that impact value. It also means that he considered this going compared with previous going. OR did he? If his ratings came out before the official grading of today's race, then this not possible. If they came out after, then it is a case of when. If it was immediately after it is possible that several different scenarios were made and the appropriate one posted, or the ratings were put together after the grading which definately implies a formula. No matter how good you are, it still takes time to put a set of ratings together.

The ratings that I used in the past Larry T and Gunther R only did ratable races and they both commented on the time and effort. Larry is a Melbourne only service, and Gunther would only manage at most 10 races SBMWA.
Interestingly both commented on the effect of the EF. Beton

Couldn't let this one go without some more thinking - initial premise: Perhaps the openers or pre-post markets aren't as good as we think they are? Decided to construct a small sample set to compare the accuracy of openers(OP), pre-post(PP), Starting Price on BF(SP) and 6 other sets of ratings(RS1-6) from today's racing at Headquarters.

Results as follows...

FLEMINGTON
.....W2 W4
PP ..25 38
OP ..50 63
SP ..63 63
RS1 50 88
RS2 50 75
RS3 38 75
RS4 38 75
RS5 63 75
RS6 75 75

Where;
W4 = % of winners from top 4
W2 = % of winners from top 2

A small sample no doubt. A bit surprising, nevertheless.

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

A pre-post "calculator" may help some what.

Attached Files

PrePostCalc.xls (44.0 KB, 287 views)

can you elaborate Puntz e.g. How do you use this tool?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Some interesting differences in stats. I wonder if this had anything to do with SOT = GOOD(Melb) vrs DEAD(Syd). In both cases however, a ratings based system trumped the pre-post market, bookies openers and BF SP.

FLEMINGTON
.....W2 W4 W1
PP ..25 38 0
OP ..50 63 38
SP ..63 63 38
RS1 50 88 25
RS2 50 75 50
RS3 38 75 13
RS4 38 75 25
RS5 63 75 25
RS6 75 75 63(5 top pick winners from 8 races)

RANDWICK
.....W2 W4 W1
PP ..78 78 44
OP ..67 78 44
SP ..78 78 33
RS1 78 78 67(6 top pick winners from 9 races)
RS2 33 56 33
RS3 44 56 33
RS4 44 67 11
RS5 44 89 22
RS6 33 56 33

Where;
W4 = % of winners from top 4
W2 = % of winners from top 2
W1 = % of winners from top pick

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

LG

You put in the Pre Post prices, from what I gathered here on this post, either one's own ratings, or the Pre Post from racing pages.
That's in Column C
'
The Openers, where ever one gets their openers from, that goes in Column D
,

Put in all the runners for that race if you wish.
Then press the button that says "SORT"
It will simply sort the highest rated to the lowest and delete the blanks.

It's a very basic calculator according to the rules I found as written. They are not my rules or formula.

Once you have completed a race and have filed it, press the button that says, RESET, and ya good to go onto the next race.

The $100 in Cell F2, calculates if you want to "make 100" calculated from the Opening Price.
The RATE calculation is according to the pre-posts.
I don't keep stats, too many opinions on "official" bookies openers. So over time one gets a "feel" for it.

Hope that helps, ..

Ta Puntz, I get the calculator now, mate. What does this comment above mean, however?

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

You mean "official" ?

hmm, how do I explain that one ?
Read my earlier post on this thread, there's a clue.
It's where the mechanical systems go into a "grey" area when forces of nature and the unexpected changes things to make it so,then it causes one to cast opinions due to those unexpected circumstances, then it may be reflected by the Opening Price.
That OP may be of the opinion of one, who causes another to follow, but it may not.

In short,
there are Odds and True Odds. Which one is it?
Who, or what will one use to fill in the blank where it say's Openers, so as to ultimately determine if it's going to be a bet or a no bet?

I don't know how else to answer, "official"

Informative thread we have here gents.

My answer(s) will be restricted as i am only back in "OZ',
For today flying back out again tonight.

When sorting out a selection(s) method whatever one it is,
I always do this.

You must adjust the number of selections for the field size you,
Are betting in, unless you have your own prices and set a cutoff figure,
At a certain price.

What use is checking the top 1-2-3-4 chances of a preferred method,
In say a field size of 5-6 runners.

This is the formula i used but you can adjust to your own specifications.

"FIELD SIZE"
=<8(1-2-3)
9-12( 1-2-3-4)
13=> (1-2-3-4-5).

Remember if you do your own pricing then you would probably have a set cutoff where over that price the selections are not profitable except possibly for the exotics etc.

For straight mechanical methods.
Openers.
P/Post.
Ratings etc, i use the field/size method.

This is just my way of sorting, others may be different.

Cheers.
Garyf.