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  #1  
Old 23rd April 2012, 04:21 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default Late Mail and Top Tips
Just something i was playing with today, ran this test from Mon 16-Sun 22

Rules

Must be the tipped as first selection for both Radio Tab and Guest Tipster and must also be the Lat Mail selection.

Must be 3 divis paying

Code:

Venue		Race	No	Runner				Win	Place
ARMIDALE 		1	1	BATTERED		1.70	1.20
ARMIDALE 		3	2	SUTTON SURPRISE			1.00
ARMIDALE 		6	2	EMAZON				1.70
TAREE 			1	2	HYENA				1.30
KILMORE 		4	5	HADRON			1.80	1.00
KILMORE 		7	2	ANKLETS			
SANDOWN 		5	6	LE REMAS		3.60	1.70
WERRIBEE 		7	4	FRUEHLING		1.90	1.40
CRANBOURNE 		2	8	SUBTLE CHARM		1.90	1.10
CRANBOURNE 		7	8	CHAMPAGNE RUBY		2.70	1.70
CRANBOURNE 		8	10	POISONOUS PRINCESS			
MORPHETTVILLE 		5	8	SARCASM			4.10	1.80
MORPHETTVILLE 		7	6	SHEILA'S STAR			1.30
MORPHETTVILLE 		8	6	BELDARA			4.40	1.70
ASCOT 			1	1	MISS SOLIS		1.50	1.10
ASCOT 			3	7	KALAHAAR		2.50	1.60
ASCOT 			5	3	MASCHINO			1.30
GOSFORD 		5	7	PURRFECT			1.30
GOSFORD 		6	7	MACARTHUR BULL			
GOSFORD 		7	12	HALLOWELL BELLE			1.40
BALLARAT 		4	4	ARLINGTON PARK			1.30
BALLARAT 		5	1	SYLVAN POWER			1.50
QUEANBEYAN 		2	7	GEECUP			
QUEANBEYAN 		4	5	GAME SET 'N' MATCH	3.10	1.50
QUEANBEYAN 		5	1	DUBAI RULER		1.40	1.30
QUEANBEYAN 		9	3	PEAL OF BELLS		2.90	1.60
							
Selections	26						
Wins	13	SR	50.00%	Profit	4.80	POT	18.46% A/Div	2.58
Places	22	SR	84.62%	Profit	7.50	POT	28.85% A/Div	1.35
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Last edited by Shaun : 23rd April 2012 at 04:26 PM.
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  #2  
Old 23rd April 2012, 07:53 PM
mattio mattio is offline
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Be careful there Shaun, these type of selections would be hugely overbet in my opinion. I would be testing for a few months to get a more accurate guide.
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  #3  
Old 24th April 2012, 08:25 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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You can't be serious Shaun?

Tell you what I do. Before I post any simple idea that is going to excite people, I go back to the start of the year and check the results. I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.
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  #4  
Old 24th April 2012, 09:09 AM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.

Can you really Bernie?

If so please put up the results post-haste.

Can I please ask that before you react so negatively to ideas and systems, that you do a little research yourself?

There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.

Thanks for sharing Shaun.

The Schmile
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  #5  
Old 24th April 2012, 09:41 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheSchmile
There's actually a fine system based around these rules if one sticks to the metro races only, that made a profit 10 out of 12 months last year and a tidy profit overall. It took me a few solid days of manual research to figure it out so unfortunately I won't be posting it here.
TheSchmile, you seem a little confused. I said a "simple idea like that". You have based a system around those rules. Different scenario altogether mate.
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  #6  
Old 24th April 2012, 01:23 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
TheSchmile, you seem a little confused. I said a "simple idea like that". You have based a system around those rules. Different scenario altogether mate.

Hi Bernie,

I get your point.

My point is that from Shain's idea there is cream to be had, so it is worthy of posting.

The Schmile
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  #7  
Old 24th April 2012, 09:45 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
You can't be serious Shaun?

Tell you what I do. Before I post any simple idea that is going to excite people, I go back to the start of the year and check the results. I can guarantee that as you go through the months you will find you are onto a loser.



Do you think i am going to post a winning idea?

You could do a lot worse than follow a system like this, as much as i hate betfair these days they do offer better prices on the place option at times and using the 3 tabs to secure the best price place option is not a bad idea.

This was a simple idea nothing says people can't expand on it to filter the losers.

The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.
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  #8  
Old 24th April 2012, 09:49 AM
bernie bernie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
The truth is the fav wins and places more often than any other runner and if you are able to filter out the losers you have a better chance at profit than most other selections.

I agree, but easier said than done. Many have tried and many have failed.
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  #9  
Old 24th April 2012, 11:11 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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I only looked at Late Mail selections a year or so ago and did a bit of an analysis over a few months.
They did end up losing quite a bit, however, they have really good or really bad patches.
Some days they win all over the place, other days not a cracker.
I guess with some extra filters you could weed out a lot of losers.
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  #10  
Old 26th April 2012, 07:20 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Do you think i am going to post a winning idea?



I did Shaun.
Still going strong, and I guarantee nobody here uses it.
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