All,

Here is a "backfitted" system which might be worth watching. All the back fitted rules are sensible (in my opinion). I developed this today cause I got bored and thought I would give backfitting a go.

It has had 10 bets in the last 10 days and has had 10 winners.

The first bet which is coming up is:

Tuesday @ Grafton Race 1 - Canny Play

Results from the previous 10 races are below :

WIN $ PLACE$
$2.30 $1.40 - 1st
$3.00 $1.80 - 1st
$5.40 $2.20 - 1st
$1.40 $1.00 - 1st
$2.30 $1.30 - 1st
$2.80 $1.30 - 1st
$1.40 $1.10 - 1st
$2.00 $1.30 - 1st
$1.80 $1.20 - 1st
$1.60 $1.10 - 1st

Remember this is backfitted and over a very short time frame so I expect this to fall flat. But if interested you might want to keep an eye on it.

Good Luck.

Might be worth creating your own ALL - UP win bet with this one.

Cheers.
darky.

WELL DONE !
excellant results

Dingo

Here's another one.

Rule 1. Select the winner of the fourth race on the card.
Rule 2. Metropolitan meetings only.

You can play around with rule 1 a bit. Ignore rule 2 if you like but a lot of people like to get onto this one so I find it works better on Metro meetings where the prize pool is larger.

KV

KV,

At least I gave a tip with the method.


Can you give a tip for your method (before the race) ?

Good Luck.

Full marks Wesmip you've spotted a flaw in the system. Thank goodness someone did before I started using serious money. :-)

However, in my favour I did post some rules. I don't know about anyone else but I find it a bit frustrating seeing a bunch of results or selections and no idea how they are arrived at. It doesn't teach me anything or give me any grist for the punting system mill.

Best of luck anyway,

KV

Hi Wesmip,
When I read this at first I assumed the 10 bets for 10 winners was the result of backfitting but reading some replies I get the impression some others think you backfitted it and then had the 10 winners using the rules.

Which is it? How many bets have you had since you devised the system?

KV

KV,

ok to avoid confusion I did the following :

Took some data I had stored from Dec - Jan and essentially backfitted the results so that it only had horses which had won or placed. Any horse which didn't at least place I found a reason to exclude ( hence backfitting ).

I then checked it over the previous 10 days and found it had 10 selections for 10 Winners. But I didn't test these real time ( but they were not part of the data which was used for backfitting).

I haven't bothered going back further.

The backfitted results were :

Races : 45 ( 2 months of data)
Wins : 30
Places : 45
WIN ROT : 183%
PLACE ROT : 153%

I don't believe the above figures are worth anything except to show the system might have some potential. Hence I only put up the last 10 days worth as these were not part of the backfitted data.

The first "live" selection where I actually picked the winner before the race was the first one I posted here. Regardless of that the system had selected 11 winners in a row.

Therefore new stats are (with those 11 winners and a second) :

Races : 57
Wins : 41
Places : 57

Hope that clears it up.

michaelg,

Probably could vary it, I just had a quick look over the data and found it was only one rule that really mattered. I might be able to just use this one rule, but it is the main filter and was the one that really cut out the majority of losers.

Anyway I will have a play aorund and anything I come up with I will post.

BTW there were no selecitons today.

Good Luck.

Thanks Wesmip, that makes it much more valid than my first impression. I look forward to more results.
KV