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  #1  
Old 26th February 2006, 03:19 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default Neural CF Plan

Heres a plan that one might like to check out .
It pulls quit a few strong priced winners , betting 7 days a week.

Target the top 2 picks on Radio TABQ or any other reliable source.
One of these 2 tend to get up 40% of the time.

Target races 4-8 only .
These tend to be better quality races & its a way to reduce the number of bets.

Pull up the Neural site & set the CP rating column to 5 & all the rest to 0.

We bet the horse with the worst CP (current performance) rating, even if its showing a 0 rating.

The reason why we bet the one with the worst rating, is so we can pull some value, because a lot of punters pay a lot of attention to hoses most resent performances which usually equates to over betting & short prices , we are going against the herd.

The plan pulls some very good prices & has shown a level stakes profit on many days where the Fav decides not to get up all day.

Many experts will tell us that one cannot use just one single set of positive performance figures & hope to profit long term , so, we will take that advice & bet the opposit.

Staking .
Bet 1.0% of bank at level stakes
e.g. $1.00 for every $100 bank.

Have a look at Sat 25th Feb.
There were 9 venues with 44 races to bet on (races 4-8)
11 wins from 44 =25% SR
Ret 58.10. O/L 44.00= +14.10 Prof =32% POT
Divs $8.30,5.10.1.90,4.50,3.80,9.10,5.50,4.00,3.90,2.80 ,5.10,4.10

Check it out on past performances before betting any real money.

Cheers.
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  #2  
Old 26th February 2006, 03:26 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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That CP is supposed to read CF ( Current Form )
Its the second one down the column.
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  #3  
Old 26th February 2006, 12:13 PM
Fryingpan Fryingpan is offline
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Default To add

Yes I was wondering about those 'formless' winners. How do you spot them??

I have found than sometimes you can spot them with 5th or worse in BOTH of their last two starts plus they are also 1st 2nd or 3rd favourites in the race. Usually come very close or win. I must add the race ought to be a class 4 or above race, since formlessness abounds in the lower grades.

Really interesting twist Bhagwan.

I'd be very interested if anyone can add to this.

Eg ratio of high CF in a field to low CF ratings and who wins.
or When does the CF and some other rating show a wave concept of rising and falling performance.
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  #4  
Old 26th February 2006, 10:39 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Default

Sun 26 Feb Results.
Targeting races 4-8 only
Worst CF rating of the Top 2 Radio TAB tips.
8 from 35 =23% SR
Ret $55.70
O/L $35.00
Prof +20.70 =59% POT


Divs
$2.90,19.40,4.60,6.60,4.70,2.60,4.80,10.10

Targeting best CF rating= 9 from 35 Ret 50.70 O/L 35.00 Prof +$15.70
We can see that the SR is similar but the average return is greater.


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  #5  
Old 27th February 2006, 07:07 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Results Mon 27 Feb
races 4-8 only
1 win from 13 bets
O/L 13.00
Ret 40.30
Prof +27.30 =210% POT

Div $40.30 (amazing)

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  #6  
Old 27th February 2006, 07:48 PM
dingoboy dingoboy is offline
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Hi Bhagwan

This neural site, is it the one i am thinking of, AA_ ?

I still use the unitab first two/three picks, it is working well, sometimes however i leave out a selection if it is a bit strange or excessive odds, sometimes they do come in.

Thanks for all of your effort.

MADDAM DINGO
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  #7  
Old 28th February 2006, 05:19 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Yes ,it is that site.
Its the weird ones with strange looking form that often get up & pay the double digit returns .

By using this process of taking the worst CF rating , the decision is made for us when separating the top 2 selections.

One would expect the stronger CF (current form) rated horse to get up more often & it does , but not enough to make level stakes profit.

It is often said , that one has to try & look outside the square if one wishes to find value so as to place ourselves in front of the game.

Another reason for leaving out the first 3 races, is this is where statisticly, favs have the highest SR .

So far there have been 92 bets for 20 wins = 22% SR
Ret. $154.10
O/L $92.00
Prof +$62.10 =67.5% POT

I expect to see this POT to come down over time.

I`ll say one thing , one wont become bored because of shortage of action.

Most experts claim that long term profit, can not be made betting this number of bets each day & they may very well be right, but I beleive they are talking about chasing in form horses & there are not enough of those to go around to sustain this volumn of bets . So, we are taking the stance that there must be a number of out of form horses getting up, in between ,at juicy odds.

It could be all about the Ying & Yang .
e.g. Male & Female...Fire & Water...Profit & Loss
They must co-incide to make the difference.

Lets see if the Ying wheels fall off for this Yang process.

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