Comparison between AusTote and TAB Limited (aka NSW).

3,223 most recent races.

pre-Commission deduction

$	Aus/NSW
1	+17.2%
2	+17.9%
3	+19.2%
4	+17.2%
5	+19.3%
6	+17.9%
7	+20.1%
8	+22.0%
9	+21.2%
10	+19.0%
20	+21.2%
30	+22.7%
40	+39.0%
50	+38.6%

Fascinating .
Much appreciated.
Cheers.
darky.

After noting the huge AusTote premiums on favourite Makybe Diva and some poor returns on longshots I started to wonder whether favourites were relatively underbet on AusTote and hence even better value.

So I tried that test which did not confirm my suspicions.

This one seems more conclusive.

Ignore NSW divs >= $60 (aka flukes)

It appears the roughest 3rd of NSW winners pays even better on AusTote.

NSW	Wins	Aus/NSW
< $7	2,112	+18.3%
>= $7	1,093	+22.3%

JFC.

For such an important bit of quality information I would of thought you would get a better response from the punters than this.

Cheers.
darky.

DD,

I've been wondering that myself. But I can understand how most would not like to risk getting unwittingly involved with one further tedious interminable exchange where every phrase of mine is then subjected to analysis paralysis.

I normally put my bets on AusTote before the 20 minutes curfew so as to minimise rake, and therefore don't watch final pools much.

But my guess is that someone bets late to try and take any excess cream off the popular picks. The longshot prices are probably ignored and haphazardly benefit from this tote-crushing.

I can see your point.

Analyisis paralyisis / Yes ./It then just becomes tedious and boring and the whole point of the thread is lost.

I for one will gladly accept your figures with thanks.

Cheers.
darky

Morning all. The reason that very few are "interested" is that these kinds of stats only have relevance IF you were betting every horse in every race.Then you would win more (or lose less) on the favs, in general, on any tote OR with any bookie, as is already well known. This is because the favs are OBVIOUSLY in with some chance while the outsiders are often deliberately sent for practice, to get race fit etc etc but NOT to win (ie you shouldn't bet those ones). The reason JFC is so "tediously" taken to task so often is that (perhaps) he can only see one way to select horses and that he then alienates the other punters by using "provocative" comments like in POST 3, where the "surprise" winners (not to those who bet them!!) are "aka flukes" despite the many times that the same horse OR that horse's trainer pulls off these flukes. Stats can NEVER tell the whole story and my new thread will expand on this theme; ie why stats are a waste of time for "serious" punters (in horseracing). Cheers....... until soon.

Or perhaps I excluded the 17 $60+ results because I didn't want to risk distorting the conclusions through fluke premiums.

I note the 6/11/2005 BATHURST R4 won by Royal Dane which paid $92.25 (-2%) for me versus $30.20 in NSW.

As I've mentioned before if my numbers pick something I don't get put off by bolter prices.

Anyway I look forward to your polemic on statistics, here in this sanctuary where too much controversy is never enough.

jfc,

I am interested also.

I couldn't quite work out what the numbers meant next to the percentages, but I'm getting the drift that with commission taken out, you'd still be at least 10% better off.

Now, if I can gain 10% better return on many of my losing systems, I'd be winning!

There are literally hundreds of angle's I've ditched because of a slight loss.

But what is the liquidity of the pools like? I've been waiting for them to build up to reasonable levels.

The moral here is if one cannot win with a 10% increase in prices, one should not be in the game.

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Gday Chrome

I could not make head nor tail of the figures so I stayed out... (I still can't...its outside my area of expertise) But with your comments I can see an argument coming along the lines of turning flat stake losing in to staked winning... You would remember that long and IMHO tedious argument on another forum... on this very subject.. Some say you cant turn a loser into a winner, whilst others disagree...I happen to think that if you are close to break even you CAN make money with even the most elementary staking progression plan... Oh and if those figures DO mean that Austote is 10% better than NSW, count me in.. but I share your concerns about pool size, and what sort of damage one can do with a decent bet.

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