Pinjarra 06 last night, worst 3 price ranked get up 1st, 2nd & 3rd. Where's that leave the 'form students' now, or for that matter, any 'student of the punt'? Oh, I forgot, this is the 'wild west' after all.

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What percent formula do they use to obtain 27% ?

It's on the near top left, where it shows
1.75 to 1.55 = 27%
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According to percent formula A
= ((1.55 - 1.75) / |1.75|) * 100

= 11.4286% decrease

According to percent formula B
= ( | 1.75 - 1.55 | / ((1.75 + 1.55)/2) ) * 100
= 12.1212% difference

Source reference
http://www.calculatorsoup.com/calcu...-calculator.php

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It's harness racing after all. Does anyone know where to find the replay?

Not there yet but should show up this page soon.

http://www.harness.org.au/video-replays.cfm

Correct me if I'm wrong any of you stats genuise's out there, but the odds of getting the trifecta (using Betfair back price) was 100 x 70 x 46 = 321,999:1 The trifecta paid about $5,000 from memory.

I collect Betfair data each day and have over 6 years worth. I have tables based on 1st favourites price, number of starters and price rank. I know the historical max back price winner for that period, of any combination. How often is a new record broken for one of those combinations? .....About every 2nd day!

That's why basing a system on historical data is flawed to an extent and you have to ensure that you have many more wins, than flaws, in your system argument.

Assuming that the thing I read on the internet regarding the Discounted Harville method was correct, and that I didn't stuff up my implementation for 12 runners from the example that was given with 7 runners, a "fair" price for the winning trifecta (given the win odds for the field - and using the presumption that the odds are a somewhat accurate representation of the true probabilities) would be $72,844.14.

As a general rule, I suppose you should avoid betting all combinations that are of greater value than the pool size. (Though that's quite a lax rule as it's likely you would share the pool with other winning bettors).


...just for interest's sake, the fair trifecta price for the three shortest runners would have been $34.37.

You ought to know Walkermac (Excel 2014 Cup winner)

I was using the Don Scott method lol. Harville must've come after him? No matter what the odds, a freaky outcome, hey?

Thanks, it's there now. The favourite was way behind the rest of the field, but apart from that I didn't see anything unusual. Not that I would know anyway.