what would be the longest losing streak for a system with a win s/r of 8.4% please?

Check this thread out shifty.

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=23205

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Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

80

Its easy to work out:

You basically have a 100-8.4 = 91.6% chance of a loss.

For 1 loss the chance is 91.6%.
For 2 losses the chance is 0.916x0.916 = 0.916**2 = 83.9056
For 3 losses the chance is 0.916x0.916x0.916= 0.916**3 = 76.86
...

For n losses the chance is 0.916**n

Where ** = to the power of (available on all good calculators)

You then determine what you think is a longest losing streak. Is it 1% chance or smaller ?

you then substitute a losing streak in n and you get your result:

For 80 it is 0.916**80 = 0.09% chance. which is less then 1%.

Hi shifty,

On a sample of 100,000 trials the LLS for a SR of 8.4% is:

101 (69.56% chance that this will occur)

137 (4.93% chance that this will occur)

155 (1.04% chance this will occur).

The issue is the LLS is only one piece of the puzzle. More importantly is the maximum draw down on your betting bank which at the end of the day is the key piece of information that most punters are blissfully unaware of. There are lots of methods/systems that appear to work when one looks at the end results. The problem is though that more than likely, the method/system has a draw down peak that exceeds the punters betting capital.

My suggestion is that you place more emphasis in learning what the risk factors are than focusing purely on strike rate. You might want to take at a recent post I made that deals with the relationship between strike rate and its impact on bankroll management and profits. I have posted the link below.

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=27589

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Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

thanks all, tested over 12 years and more than 4,500 selections and not reliant on a single longshot, although the odds range is $10 to $40, pot is 39.8%. the thing that will reduce the odds (and pot) is the bet I have on the eventual winner.

If your meaning payoffs reducing, as another poster related if winners strike randomly, but over the long term you can ascertain a given s/r. how about you randomised the payoffs based on your collected data for the payoff on your selection. Remember there are basically 3 ways of calculating your avg payoff and the one most commonly used by most, is not the best.

Hi Shifty,

To be completely honest, with the other information you provided I have grave concern about the success of your method. Don't get me wrong, I wish you all the best, however most punters totally ignore what I call the realities of betting when they square up to betting a long-shot system like yours.

In order for you to have any chance of success your betting must be automated. You have 375 bets a year from your sample, thats a lot of wasted time waiting to put the bets on as I also suspect that they are price filtered ?

In your sample I can guarantee you there will be a bank draw-down of longer then 367 bets. Meaning that you will, for a whole year be less then your previous bank high and possibly longer. (Run through your profit/loss analysis of your bets in time order.) Can you sustain that demoralising run and still bet each days selection never knowing when that magic run of rebound happens?

The Reality of betting is almost a law: Your real life betting will never pan out like your test.

I'll give you a few examples from my own life.

Running an automated long-shot system with selections each day I experienced the following: I had a run of outs of about 50, which was nothing unexpected, my internet went down and in that hour I was on the phone with support I missed 6 races, 5 of which were won by one of my long-shot selections. I missed out on over 70 units profit. I have never had an 'hour of power' like that before or since. Just a random event and of course it was followed by a further long run of outs.
Another time I was betting a system that required 2-3 bets per race, and wasen't automated. It too had a horid run the few days before. BUT it was fathers day and my family wanted to take me out , so we did go, and had a wonderful time the whole day. When I got home from the 23 qualified races on that Sunday I would have won 19 of them with the lowest win div of about $4.5.

Talk about character building! Those were obviously major ones, but your life is filled with many small events of similar nature. Many outside of your control; Cyber-horse (very reliable) for instance has now been down for 5 days including the weekend, that is a lot of form and races missed by anyone that uses their form. Regrettable, but that is life. Its not perfect and sterile like your test.

You would think that the punting gods were against us. But that is not the case, the Realities of betting simply states that you will miss bets and most likely winning bets at the most inopportune time if you have any life other then punting 24/7. Everyone has them! While each of these misses might not of themselves be the end of the system profit wise, they tend to be rather decimating to the mental stability of the punter. (I still look up to the gods and ask, 5 in one hour? REALLY? Are you kidding me? )

This is why these methods are up for grabs, professional punters will not touch them because of the volatility and small future prospects due to liquidity , meaning you will never have a shot at making a living out of it. PaulD01 talks about that.

Ok that's enough of the negatives. While the pros don't touch them doesn't mean that you can't do it, make it, enjoy the experience and earn a nice little side profit or have it as just one part of your strategy. You can! Especially if you are aware of and are prepared for the pitfalls along the way and are supper consistent with your application.

All the best;

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Well said Michal.

this is the excel formula to calculate it

=ROUND(LN(D3)/-LN((1-E3)),0)
where D3 holds the sample size and E3 is the probability.

so if you had 1000 bets your longest run of outs (ROOTS) could be as high as 79
for 5000= 97 and 10000= 105.
even in your first 500 you could expect ROOTS of 71 and in the first 100 - 52 ROOTS

so if your bank wasn't big enough you could be ROOTED by the ROOTS