This simple betting system has produced interesting results whenever I have checked it over the last 30 or so years.

The aim is to back winning favourites at odds higher than the long term winning percentage of favourites.

It operates on Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide Saturday metropolitan meetings.

Using a good form guide with reliable pre post betting odds, back the favourite that has the highest pre post betting odds. If there are 2 favourites selected by this rule, then back them both. With 3 or more give the meeting a miss.

What I have noticed is that actual betting odds can vary quite wildly from these pre post odds.

As I am going into hospital for a few days - last time it turned into 9 days - I will probably be pretty quiet on the Forum and also unable to answer any questions, as I will most likely be very tired and sleeping most of the time when I do get back home.

Here are Saturday's results using the Winning Post for the odds.

Randwick:
Santa Ana Lane 2nd. $10.00

Sandown:
Zahspeed 1st. $5.20

Doomben:
Dee Nine Elle 2nd. $3.70

Morphettville:
Gingerboy: 3rd. $2.70

Cheers Neil. All the best mate.

I like some of these little systems, maybe combine a couple together, this one with the shortest priced fav would give you plenty of action, i notice just about all are set around the Sat racing, this is a good idea but would be nice to test some of these mid week, just need that reliable online prices to use, have to work on that.

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Good luck in the hospital, Neil.


Your post reminded me of some of the work that Rinconpaul (and beton?) shared on the forum. Somewhere around here there is:

* a "% Win SR Ready Reckoner" spreadsheet: given the price of the favourite, it gives each price-ranked runner's historical chance of winning. That is, if a favourite is $2 it has on average a 42% chance of winning (bookmaker overround presumably), the 2nd fave has a 20% chance of winning, and so on. Per Neil's post, he's really looking for favourites priced at greater than 30% ($3.33) - the long-term odds of favourites winning (ignoring field size/race class) - and limited his outlay to the most extreme chance (the longest-priced favourite at a race meeting). With the Reckoner you could also search for 2nd/3rd/4th faves longer than their historical odds. I think Rinconpaul's prices were from Betfair and he'd be endeavouring to react just before the jump, rather than far ahead of time. (http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...=ready+reckoner)

* a "StartingPrice_vs_WinSR" word document. For a given field size it gives the historical strike rate of each price ranking. So in an 8-horse field, you could be betting on 3rd faves if their price is greater than $5.97, to stay ahead of historical trends

* "Place Ready Reckoner": For the favourite in a given field size, back if its place odds are longer than the historical average (e.g. in an 8-horse field where the fave is in the "average" range of $1.80-$3.40, only back the favourite for a place so long as you're getting more than $1.37)


I never used the files myself (were the others from the monster "DNA of a Longshot Winner" thread?) and I think Rinconpaul was more concerned with the lay side of things, so be cautious and happy hunting

Thanks.

Here are Saturday's bets using the Winning Post again.

Caulfield:

8/1 Charmed Harmony $6.00
9/8 Sunday Escape $6.00

Randwick:
6/3 Target In Sight $4.40

Morphettville:
8/3 October Date $6.50
8/20 Segregation $6.50

Here are today's bets using this morning's Herald Sun newspaper.

Caulfield
No bets as Sunday Escape, Ruettiger and Shades Of Bella were all $6.00 favourites in R9.

Randwick
1/7 Touch Sensitive $4.80
6/11 Music Magnate $4.80

Morphettville
No nets as Howard Be Thy Name in R7 and October Date and Segregation in R8 were all $5.50.

Neil, something to think about ........

There needs to be some incorporation of Field Size in your assessment.

EXAMPLE USING FAVOURITES:

Field.....WSR.......TAB
8..........35.33.....2.50
9..........32.95.....2.64
10........32.15.....2.83
11........29.00.....2.99
12........28.15.....3.03
13........27.21.....3.22
14........26.68.....3.27

Sample: 190,924 Saturday Metro races, all Going, All distances.

Other than that I reckon your approach is well founded.

Ascot R5 N8 More Aces
Caulfield R9 Lake Como
Toowoomba R9 Fiery Heights
Morphettville R4 Gogo Grace
Randwick R2 Hussterical

Belmont R7 N4 War Jeune
Eagle Farm R8 N3 Heroic Valour
Morphettville R7 N2 Snake Charmer & N5 Affray
Randwick R5 N4 My True Love
Sandown R2 N13 Galaxy Raider & N15 Rillito

Hi kiwiz - Whos pre post betting odds do you use ?