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  #1  
Old 18th April 2014, 12:10 PM
mickthemiller mickthemiller is offline
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Default i call this the 2000 plus 40

this little system is working for me.
I thought I might share it.
self devised...

1. look at races 2000m or more ( just to save time ).
2. (number of wins plus number of second placings), divided into number of starts to be 40% or more. ( after time it gets easy to calculate. - add 1's and 2's and multiply by 2.5 )
3. last start odds SP of 10.00 or less.
4. number of wins to be equal or more than number of seconds.
5. todays odds under 11.0 ( or 10/1).
6. average prizemoney of horse to 2ooo or more ( most are ).

results march 2014 bets 25, wins 11, return 46.50
april so far 2014 bets 10, wins 3 , return 16.00
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  #2  
Old 18th April 2014, 12:24 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thanks Mick.
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  #3  
Old 18th April 2014, 12:32 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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mickthemiller, looks interesting, rule no. 5 though, is it fixed odds? if so when and where? I've found that with a rule like this you have to have a definite procedure and never alter from it. For example, you could say todays pre-post odds using Tab Form (or whatever) but always from the same source, otherwise you can get distorted data. eg if you're using SP. it could be showing $11.10c just b4 the off ( so no bet) and $10.90c after it has won.
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  #4  
Old 18th April 2014, 02:59 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
mickthemiller,you can get distorted data. eg if you're using SP. it could be showing $11.10c just b4 the off ( so no bet) and $10.90c after it has won.
Party even with my own system I'm very weary when a price limit is needed.
At $11 level I'd go up to $12 to $13 even, if the system requires such precision, given the volatility of the market it's not worth bothering about.
(if it had been proven that it never won over $11 then it's an different matter!!)
With prices at a lower level like $2 to $4 I might consider a 50 cents range.

Just my opinion! If anyone disagrees no problem.

Last edited by blackdog1 : 18th April 2014 at 03:04 PM.
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  #5  
Old 18th April 2014, 04:02 PM
mickthemiller mickthemiller is offline
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for further information....

I kept a record of all contenders.

those horses since 1st March to now
( last start 10.00 SP or more )
47 horses, 2 winners , return $6.
this imo, justifies this rule.

all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more....
61 horses, no winners....
this could justify this rule, imo.
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  #6  
Old 18th April 2014, 04:10 PM
mickthemiller mickthemiller is offline
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a further analysis gives a better POT.

one which I call the "specials"

apply this rule.. last start unplaced.

less action, however..
since march 1 to now...19 starts - 8 winners - $41.80 win return.

good luck
happy easter.

follow voleuse de coeurs, Sertorius, and boban if starting under 11.00 tote
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  #7  
Old 18th April 2014, 05:42 PM
mickthemiller mickthemiller is offline
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REGARDING POST #7
IGNORE RULE 4. FOR THIS RESULT
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  #8  
Old 18th April 2014, 05:44 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Hi Mickthemiller,

If i have this correct then the qualifiers at Caulfield for the Easter Cup on Saturday are

Banca Mo - 23 starts 11 wins 3 seconds (60.8%) $4.60 last start expected $8
Saint Or Sinner - 13 starts 6 wins 1 second (53.8%) $1.80 last start expected $8.

Good luck with this system!!
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  #9  
Old 18th April 2014, 05:46 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthemiller

all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more....
61 horses, no winners....
this could justify this rule, imo.
I thought that's what I said. In fact seeing that they don't win a lot over $10, that could be the upper cut off limit.
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  #10  
Old 18th April 2014, 08:10 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickthemiller
for further information....

I kept a record of all contenders.

those horses since 1st March to now
( last start 10.00 SP or more )
47 horses, 2 winners , return $6.
this imo, justifies this rule.

all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more....
61 horses, no winners....
this could justify this rule, imo.


Mick
Do you have the figures for a place for the rejects?
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