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#1
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i call this the 2000 plus 40
this little system is working for me.
I thought I might share it. self devised... 1. look at races 2000m or more ( just to save time ). 2. (number of wins plus number of second placings), divided into number of starts to be 40% or more. ( after time it gets easy to calculate. - add 1's and 2's and multiply by 2.5 ) 3. last start odds SP of 10.00 or less. 4. number of wins to be equal or more than number of seconds. 5. todays odds under 11.0 ( or 10/1). 6. average prizemoney of horse to 2ooo or more ( most are ). results march 2014 bets 25, wins 11, return 46.50 april so far 2014 bets 10, wins 3 , return 16.00 |
#2
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Thanks Mick.
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#3
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mickthemiller, looks interesting, rule no. 5 though, is it fixed odds? if so when and where? I've found that with a rule like this you have to have a definite procedure and never alter from it. For example, you could say todays pre-post odds using Tab Form (or whatever) but always from the same source, otherwise you can get distorted data. eg if you're using SP. it could be showing $11.10c just b4 the off ( so no bet) and $10.90c after it has won.
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#4
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Quote:
At $11 level I'd go up to $12 to $13 even, if the system requires such precision, given the volatility of the market it's not worth bothering about. (if it had been proven that it never won over $11 then it's an different matter!!) With prices at a lower level like $2 to $4 I might consider a 50 cents range. Just my opinion! If anyone disagrees no problem. Last edited by blackdog1 : 18th April 2014 at 03:04 PM. |
#5
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for further information....
I kept a record of all contenders. those horses since 1st March to now ( last start 10.00 SP or more ) 47 horses, 2 winners , return $6. this imo, justifies this rule. all horses who began at best tote odds of 11.00 or more.... 61 horses, no winners.... this could justify this rule, imo. |
#6
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a further analysis gives a better POT.
one which I call the "specials" apply this rule.. last start unplaced. less action, however.. since march 1 to now...19 starts - 8 winners - $41.80 win return. good luck happy easter. follow voleuse de coeurs, Sertorius, and boban if starting under 11.00 tote |
#7
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REGARDING POST #7
IGNORE RULE 4. FOR THIS RESULT |
#8
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Hi Mickthemiller,
If i have this correct then the qualifiers at Caulfield for the Easter Cup on Saturday are Banca Mo - 23 starts 11 wins 3 seconds (60.8%) $4.60 last start expected $8 Saint Or Sinner - 13 starts 6 wins 1 second (53.8%) $1.80 last start expected $8. Good luck with this system!! |
#9
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Quote:
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#10
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Quote:
Mick Do you have the figures for a place for the rejects?
__________________
Dear Lord Please let me break even. I need the money. |
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