Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 9th December 2013, 09:33 PM
gunny72 gunny72 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 147
Default Form figures

I know it may seem trite but I am trying to assign a rating to form figures. At present I give 10 points for a win, 6 for a second, 4 for a third, 3 for a four, 2 for a five, 1 for a six and zero for the others. I use this as a tie breaker for my ratings which take no account of recent form.

I would appreciate any comments and ideas on such values.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 8th February 2014, 07:02 AM
ixlat0 ixlat0 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 45
Default

I suggest:

8 points -- 1st
5 points -- 2nd
3 points -- 3rd
2 points -- 4th
any other placing = 1

some time ago I posted a spread sheet on this forum that assessed a horses chances based purely on form factors -- I adopted the above point scale (based on extensive research)

btw -- the point of the spread sheet was to demonstrate how to parse a string in excel

ps -- thanks for your hard work and sharing your findings (mathematical formula) on the relationship between win% and place% -- I also posted a spread sheet on how it might be put to good use

have the best day!
__________________
never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 8th February 2014, 09:43 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 93
Default

Another way would be to score based on lengths from winner. If you set a cutoff point of 15 lengths for example then deduct finishing lengths from 15 to get a score with winner scoring 15. For example, a horse 15 lengths from the winner scores 1, a horse 12.5 lengths from winner scores 2.5 and the winner scores 15.

Another variation is to take the second placed horse as the standard for scoring to reward the winners performance. Second horse receives 0 points, each horse behind it receives minus points for lengths from second horse. Winner receives plus points based on lengths won.

For example, winner wins by 5 lengths, third horse 6.5 lengths from winner. Deduct 5 from 6.5 (lengths between first and second) giving -1.5 points for third horse and 5 points for winner.

It may be felt that there is not much between horses that finish say 3 lengths from winner so they could all have the same score with perhaps the next block covering horses 3.1 to 6 lengths.

Points can be adjusted for class of race if considered important.

Just some thoughts
__________________
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”

Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 8th February 2014, 12:12 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,424
Default

I agree that if it's feasible, using margin rather than placing will be far more accurate and may actually make the difference between ratings that break even and ratings that beat the crowd.
Some placings are not placings... a 3rd a half length from the winner is obviously not the same as a 3rd 7 lengths away.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 407,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/09/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Last edited by Chrome Prince : 8th February 2014 at 12:15 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 17th April 2014, 04:50 PM
gunny72 gunny72 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 147
Default

Late replying as I've been away for over month but thanks to ixalt0 for his figures that proportion wise agree with mine which also result from extensive research. I've noticed that they follow a Fibonacci pattern!

I have thought about using lengths but lately I am sold on rank ordering. A 5 length 3rd behind Black Caviar might be a reasonable run.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 17th April 2014, 05:59 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,420
Default

80% of winners ran within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 08:32 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655