as a long time member of this forum, i just sit back and help out were i can and read all the posts.
i came to thinking and please give your views that i believe a race can be beaten by a maths formula to cover all types of bets and produce a profit!
i know favs will make it hard so you need to know how much to bet.and in what combo.
i suppose it's a type of dutch and target bet together.
i do know of a punter who sits at a race meeting and will work out a race with his calculator( have tried to eavesdrop) and he keeps on collecting. the orange sports car and his living address says he's doing somethng right.
just a thought as it would throw the need to run form out the window and grab those outsiders.
its sounds like the search for the holy grail ?
what do you guys think, will there one day be a program called the un-emotional punter!
cheers to all

Does your mate go by the name Marty McFly?

rooburger, just by way of input, I watched a very interesting profile of a professional punter by the name of John Goff based in York England (many years ago) it was a documentary type programme, which followed his expliots for several weeks.
He was very well known at the tracks and his tactic was to first weigh up the odds on offer, then he had OTHER people place bets on several horses that were being offered at "over the odds" @ fixed odds, he then went and personally placed bets openly on several of these horses, which caused great hoards of people to follow suit, which in turn caused the odds to decrease dramatically and the odds of the other main chances to blow, of course he then had his "people" place bets at the inflated odds on these, so that no matter what, he collected a %.

He was in fact "making a book" but just tilting things in his favour LEGALLY!

So YES he was beating the book by Maths. I, in my humble way tried to emulate this tactic when it happenned naturally, but of course it was so rare that I couldn't claim any fame.

But I think though in the sense that you are talking about it is unlikely by MOST to beat the book by maths, I think the people who WIN long term are just pure lucky ( laugh at the word luck at your peril) or and most often are people who have such an incredible knowledge and understanding of horses, odds etc etc that they can come out in front.

rooburger,

I'm afraid the above doesn't really mean much as an indicator of punting success. There are plenty of rich people who like to punt. Kerry Packer was a big punter [in Casino terms, a 'whale'] .....also, overall a big loser who certainly never made his money from punting, just like most other rich people who punt.

Seeing well off people getting a few good collects doesn't mean much either. You can't possibly be shadowing the guy you mentioned every time he punts and if he was a serious winning punter he would be doing it a home on a computer and telephone chasing better odds, not at a TAB. If you know him and he tells you he is a winning punter ....well anyone here a losing punter??? See, not many hands up [if any].

I lose, not much but overall I average out at being in front 1 year in 3 and I think that's not a bad effort. I punt for pleasure and can afford my modest overall % loss and in return I get a lot of enjoyment from the game. I do have periods of success though where I think I've got the game cornered ...then reality kicks in with a losing streak. It's easy to beat a race, but it's another thing completely to beat the races. It's a negative expectation game [with or without a calculator]. The odds are well against us.

Punters will let you know [very loudly sometimes] when they are winning, but generally keep their losses quiet. Whether someone is wining or losing long term is a hard one to work out. Also, punters are often bigger lier's than fisherman. What we do know is that 95% [possibly more] of all punters lose long term and that probably holds true even for members on this forum :-)

good input guys, it,s the eternal effort that makes it fun i think.
about the guy in question if you live in adelaide as i do you will see him at angle park (my second home)
and he has his corner with his own tab operator to process his bets. i have chatted some of the tellers but they just say he bets a lot and thats all they will tell me. i understand the confidence thing.
so if in adelaide check him out. he is real.
he is a very secretive person not much emotion race to race .
cheers guys

The punt can and has been beaten by maths in fact a few old members from this site have done it.

The problem is that the guys taking the bets soon see what is going on and restrict thier betting amounts to the point there is no profit.


The way i see it being beaten is to find different bet types from different services that are totaly unrelated and pit them against each other.

Even though the TAB offere poor odds they are a good starting point because there profit is based on the input of money and not who wins and loses.

You could combine this with say a betting exchange with low margins to create your own lock position.

As yet i have not found the right bet types to Consistently make a profit.

Shaun your point about the bookies barring you is very true.

Places like Betfair are a dream come true for those barred by corporates.

This is a real important posting.

The maths is the most important part of the punt.

It doesn't matter how good at "doing the form" you are, if you can't get good enough odds to make it win financially.

As I see member after member posting "what about this angle or that angle", I can almost instinctively know that the odds will be too bad to make a profit.

The experts world over have already factored in most of these angles into the pricing structure to ensure that you cannot win.

One has to look outside the square or for a very slight niche where something has been overlooked. It's not easy, and certainly not as easy as finding the best horse in EVERY race, nor top jockey, trainers etc.

It exists in minute details that most punters do not have the time nor facility to find.

One can defy the maths, but not Win betting every race, nor necessarily every day.

The more one bets, the more loss will occur, except in the case of an edge.

I foresee the situation where I will be using a betting exchange (not Betfair) to log bets at minimum and above prices each day, and expect only 10% of them to be matched or less.

The matched bets will add up to profit over several months, this is the way of the future in defying the maths.

One of my favourites systems, still wins to this day after years in real time betting, systems can also win, and you can win betting on favourites, but only if the edge exists by being selective.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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Why not Betfair Chrome?

DrRon,

It's personal, I'll never ever use them ever again after their appauling customer service and sneaky rule changes after the fact.

This is in no way a blight on anyone else using them, I just have a low tolerance for poor service and totally misleading or innaccurate emails.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg