If its about finding Overlays , where would you look?

Could it be the Favourite?
The Favourite , the animal that everyone wants to back.
The animal that most likely has all the available data pointing to it winning.
Could it be the Favourite?
I think not.
In fact , if you were looking to LAY an animal , then amongst the Favourites would the most likely contenders be found.
The more data available about an animal , then the more likely that that animal is either at the correct Odds , or has been overbet.

How about this.
If given 100 Even money Favourites , is it an easy task to eliminate 50 of these Favourites without throwing away more than 25 Winners?
I reckon I could do it , but I don't know if I could well enough to make a Profit.

Then there is the other choice of say $5 shots.
If we had 100 of these runners , could we do as well or better than with the Even Money Group?
To do as well , means we need to be able to eliminate 50 runners without eliminating more than 10 Winners.
Again , I reckon I could do it , but still not well enough to make a Profit.
But that is if the $5 shots were all in different Races.

BUT HERE'S THE THING.
With the Even Money Chances , these are more than likely in different Races.
And each of them will be at Even Money , because a lot better judges than I have made them so.
BUT , with the $5 shots , there is often 2 or even 3 animals , and not unusual to find 4 in the same race.
So what is happening here , is that those a lot better judges than me are having doubts.
And when there is doubt , there is the potential to get it wrong.

I'm gonna have a play in this thread making suggestions as to where the Overlay might be found.

What I'm doing is knocking up some Markets that may have innaccuracies amongst some of the contenders.
These innacuracies manifest themselves as certain runners appearing at way over the Odds.
But thats fine.
These are usually animals that will be well bet and will be either at the correct Odds or Underlays and of no interest.

What I'm trying to locate are animals that are amongst the group of runners with some sort of winning Chance , but are available at exaggerated Prices.

I have zero ability at predicting what Prices animals will be available at so I won't be suggesting which animals to bet on.
But its not difficult to find the animal if it is there.
It stands out like dogs balls.
It is usually the only Overlay in the race.
Often scenarios roll up where there are more than 2 Overlays in a Race.
These are not Overlays.
They are caused by a Massive Wager on a certain runner.
And usually these massive wagers are very educated.

Here's Race 1 at The MEADOWS

4 KILTANON SKYE $4.1
3 ELLEN BALE $4.2
5 YOWYEH $6.7
1 ATELIER $7.7
2 LASTING EFFECT $10
7 SCUSAMI HOTEL $12
8 SISCO TURBO $25
9 INDIGO FLASH Res. $33

If you look at the way the Odds are grouped I have 2 excellent winning Chances and 2 Good Chances , then 2 more capable of causing an upset.
So in this Race , a substantial Overlay is needed to overcome the Openness of the Race.
But be intensely aware of when there is more than one overlay.

Meadows Race 3

5 DYNA CARI $4.1
7 HODGE $5.7
8 IRVINE BALE $6.4
1 PARISETTE $7.4
6 HARBOUR ROSE $12
3 OUR LISA $12
4 ROCKADORE $15
2 WHERE'S CLEO $16

There is a smooth transition in Odds here from the top selection to the 4th selection.
Many many Winning Chances and the Overlay needs to be almost a double Overlay before becoming eligible for a Wager here , but seems the sort of race where there will be one.
My guess is the Pink , only because all the others can't possibly be available at double the calculated Odds.
But my guess is worse than yours.

Meadows Race 4

5 CORAZON BALE $3.6
1 BATTLE ROSE $3.7
3 ETHEL BALE $5.7
4 WILD ARMS $10
7 EL RIO $14
6 KEEP ME COVERED $16
2 SONADOR MISS $25
8 ARVO'S STEFAN $66

The 3 Winning Chances here.
Unlikely to find an Overlay but some possibility of Battle Rose


Meadows Race 5

3 COSMIC COOPER $2.1
6 RICH SHIRAZ $6
8 CRONOS BALE $11.5
2 SUPER RICO $12
7 PLANKTON $16
9 WICKED MAGIC Res. $20
1 BOGGY SPITFIRE $25
5 KIMBA BALE $30

Just slamming the top selection here.
Only concern that it arrives too late over the 525 as its pet distance is 600.


MEADOWS Race 6

4 FLIP BALE $5.5
5 RYKER BALE $6.2
7 TIGER GLOW $7
6 EVERYWHERE $7
2 DARLIN BALE $7
1 TAKE IT HOME $10
8 GLENDA BALE $14
3 MR. SHARP $16

Good Race to stay out of.
But we shall see.

Imagine Moeee, you classified each of those Even money dogs, say by variables that the public use for wagering, would an even money fav that has the Best L5 avg ART of the other 7 dogs, be a better proposition, than the Best Class avg L5 start dog.
It would make your task a lot easier in which dogs to eliminate, I'd suggest

Unfortunately the top selection was a Massive Overlay and lost badly in this Race.

I'd suggest that if you wanted to LAY a dog, the fave is your only option. Looks to me to be very little money trading on the dogs.

In the gallops, I somtimes lay something at say $21, I may have priced it at $61 for example, and if I'm convinced the BF market price is wrong, I will lay. No way you could get set on the dogs.

So Mo, how do you price these markets. Some sort of speed ratings? I'm almost interested in learning about the greyhounds but don't know where to start. I fool around with speed ratings on the gallops, and I'd have thought that method is suited to the dogs.

Interesting thread.

I have rarely messed with LAYING,
I just have morbid fear of the payout should the animal win.
To pay out $100 for the sake of winning $5 - That means you are in fact taking 20 to 1 on about an Event.
Why would you do that?
I mean $5 doesn't even buy a decent burger , and should you fail , it will be at least 20 more wagers before you can even think about getting one.

Messing with Favourites could be an option though.
It is quite often that the Favourite is Odds On and the payout then is actually less than the collect.
The problem here is that the Favourite at such short a Price is often because heavy bettors are privvy to information that I simply do not have.
So the Question needs to be asked ," Am I absolutely sure I have this right?"
And I can never in my wildest dreams answer yes.
Until you are amongst the top 10% in your chosen Field can you have faith in your judgement.
If you just a hobby player like me , the only way to survive is to respect your Bank and treat it like the blood supply to your body.
If it runs low , limit the flow loss.
If their is a surplus, only then consider a small withdrawal.

RAVEN.
I read somewhere in your posts that you are managing an 18% ROI.
If that ain't providing enough sustenance , then I suggest you consider alterations in that sphere somehow that the 18% realizes a suitably large enough dividend to get you what you need.
You have absolutely no reason to depart into a different Field , not even to test the water , or as a backup to your working methodology.

But I have seen yoour brilliance and intelligence in action.
And if you can outdo WOOF43 and translate it into everyday understandable , then I should be asking you to enlighten me on your methods.
Although perhaps the eccentric and clinical application and personality that WOOF43 has is an essential requirement to do well in the Gambling arena.
Just being smart ain't enough - most geniusses seem to have been eccentrics.

RAVEN.
If you are truly interested in how I come up with my Markets , then here is the Link to where it all started.
http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=11591

Perhaps a good idea may be to ask one of the members that received the actual spreadsheet to post it here.
I notice Chrome Prince was amongst those members.
How about it CP?
You still have that sheet from 7 years ago?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

This is copy and paste from a few months back

HOW I FORM A MARKET

For the example , I have chosen Race 8 at Shepparton tonight.

What I do is download each runners race history and place it in my Excel Spreadsheet.
I only go back 24 months.This I have found is usually more than sufficient.
I only use the latest 18 starts if the animal has more than that in the previous 2 years.
What I use to compare each runner against the others is their race times.
Of course the problem is the various tracks and distances that exist.
So there needs to be a common datum that links all the tracks and distances.
Track Records is good.
Or perhaps an average of the 3 fastest times? - or 5?

So i subtract what time the animal ran from the standard for that course and distance
I do this for the 18 starts , and then averagethem.
Do this for all 8 runners and you now have a starting rating.
It will be grossly innacurate , but is more accurate than a dartboard.

Once I have a rating for each dog , I place the rating into a Formula which translates the ratings into a Market

So my Raw Market for Race 8 is this.

1 MISTER MOOMS $23.4
2 VUVUZELA $7.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $21.3
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $21.7
5 TIME MATTERS $19.1
6 HIAVACKOVA $5.6
7 BEST PERFUME $2.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $33.4

The first problem that needs to be overcome is that ALL 18 lines are included in the average.
I have no idea how to mechanically get rid of unsuitable lines , so I must go through each animal and get rid of , or modify lines that are biasing the rating incorrectly

For example Mister Mooms is clearly racing better now , so I eliminate a couple earlier poor performances

Also the suitability of the Box draw needs to be allowed for.
Poor Box draw means an animal wont be able to repeat a good performance.
Good Box draw means can eliminate some poor performances which drag an animals average rating down.
Mister MOOMS is extremely well drawn so I eliminate many more poor lines.

After doing all that , I now end up with this much more accurate Market

1 MISTER MOOMS $3.3 - before $23
2 VUVUZELA $12.2 - before $7.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $18.9 - before $21
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $49.0 - before $27
5 TIME MATTERS $32.0 - before $19
6 HIAVACKOVA $6.8 - before $5.6
7 BEST PERFUME $2.9 - before $2.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $55.8 - before $33

The obvious major change is the Odds of the Red Runner.

Next I look at the stats in The Watchdog.
It gives me an idea as to whether it loves a box or a track and how cionsistent an animal is.
I also look at The watchdog Market to see if I am way out.
I also look at the Computer ratings to see any ovious errors there.

And my Final Market becomes this

1 MISTER MOOMS $3.5
2 VUVUZELA $9.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $16.8
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $51.9
5 TIME MATTERS $33.9
6 HIAVACKOVA $7.2
7 BEST PERFUME $3.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $30.4

or in Market Order

7 BEST PERFUME $3.1
1 MISTER MOOMS $3.5
6 HIAVACKOVA $7.2
2 VUVUZELA $9.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $16
8 VALLETTA FLAME $30
5 TIME MATTERS $33
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $50

So going by The Watchdog market , there isn't a lot of Value here.
But to force the wager , I would suggest backing 6 HIAVACKOVA for the place.
Its Odds of Placing are $2.05

Here's the results of that race example

1 - MISTER MOOMS 5.9 2.4
6 - HIAVACKOVA 2
2 - VUVUZELA 2.2
5 - TIME MATTERS 0