Here are my Trans-Tasman predictions for the first round of 5. Be cautious becasue we have not had a Trans-Tasman match in over a year. Aussie teams and New Zealand teams may have shifted relative to each other while we only had domestic matches to use to update the ratings.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby- Week 13.doc (59.5 KB, 2453 views)

I am concerned about betting on the Trans-Tasman series at this point. At the start of a typical Super Rugby season, we usually look at the first 3 or 4 weeks and wait until the ratings have adjusted from the previous year. Of course, each team has already played 8 domestic matches, but we have only had one set of Trans-Tasman matches in over a year. I am seeing really large bookmaker underdog odds offered on some AU teams. If those odds are justified as compared to the current AU ratings, then some AU team ratings should fall and become more accurate relative to the New Zealand teams. There might only be one or two Trans-Tasman weeks left after ratings have adjusted, but we don’t want to make bad bets in haste. I advise being very cautious at this point.

Best wishes,

Ray Stefani

On one hand, having all of my last 10 favourites win was great, but at the expense of all the AU teams. This week, based mostly on AU and AOTEAROA matches, I have this year's AU winner Reds to beat the Chiefs, helped by the Reds’ home advantage. We'll see.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby- Week 15.doc (60.0 KB, 2443 views)

All 15 of my Trans-Tasman favourites have won so far, including a bookie upset win by the Reds. The five New Zealand teams now have higher ratings than the Australian teams, but with home advantage, some AU teams can be favoured.

Good luck with Trans-Tasman Round 4.

Ray Stefani
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Attached Files

Super Rugby- Week 16.doc (59.5 KB, 2393 views)

All 20 of my favourites have won in the first four Trans-Tasman rounds, including upset wins by the Reds and Brumbies, the only AU wins so far.

We have just this last Trans-Tamans round left and then the Trans-Tasman championship game.

Good luck and good health!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby- Week 17.doc (60.0 KB, 2307 views)

For the last two seasons before COVID took over, the AU teams won 30% of Trans-Tasman games. This time, the AU teams won just 2 of the 25 Trans-Tasman games (just 4%). At least 24 of my 25 favourites did win.

Here is another oddity. Even though all 5 New Zealand teams finished ahead of all 5 Australian teams in the Trans-Tasman standings, the two teams that played in the AOTEAROA final didn't make the Trans-Tasman final.

At least the value bets following the rules I gave you, finished with a 22% profit in turnover.

All the best to my rugby friends. Have a healthy future, one and all.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby- Week 18.doc (59.5 KB, 2353 views)

France $3.70
New Zealand $3.75
South Africa $5.50
Ireland $6
England $11
Australia $12
Argentina $29
Wales $41
Scotland $51
Fiji $151
Japan $301
Samoa $501
Tonga $501
Italy $501
Georgia $751
Portugal $1501
Chile $1501
Namibia $1501
Romania $1501
Uruguay $1501


Scheduled to take place in France from 8 September to 28 October 2023 in nine venues across the country.