Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 21st April 2024, 08:30 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
Default Don't trust Betfair SP data

Don't trust that the Betfair historical data is correct.
I downloaded a significant sample size (12 months) which showed a significant edge with filters on a daily basis, in reality I've been using Gruss Betting Assistant and set it up correctly. After a month of betting on every race with the filters it shows a loss. I took commission into consideration, so it's not that.
Where they are getting their data from certainly isn't from the actual Betfair SP. Something is really off in a big way!
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 8th July 2024, 05:45 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,522
Default

Chrome

Did you account for deductions for late scratchings ? This is where most people get screwed up and yeah it makes a huge difference.

Also did you also account for the different commissions per state? And commission is only paid on winning markets. Losses in other markets do not offset your commission to pay.

Also one of my golden rules is never use historical data provided by anyone, always collect it yourself even if it takes months or a year to collect enough to analyse.

I have no idea if the history files are correct as I collect my own numbers but BSP is very hard to beat for the average punter (even those who know what they are doing). BSP is very efficient.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11th July 2024, 09:05 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Chrome

Did you account for deductions for late scratchings ? This is where most people get screwed up and yeah it makes a huge difference.

Also did you also account for the different commissions per state? And commission is only paid on winning markets. Losses in other markets do not offset your commission to pay.

Also one of my golden rules is never use historical data provided by anyone, always collect it yourself even if it takes months or a year to collect enough to analyse.

I have no idea if the history files are correct as I collect my own numbers but BSP is very hard to beat for the average punter (even those who know what they are doing). BSP is very efficient.


Hi UB,
Yes, I accounted for deductions for late scratchings.
I used a flat 10% commission deduction even though that is the worst case scenario. Yes, BSP is very hard to beat, but the filters I had in place did show a profit long term.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:09 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655